A surge in crude oil prices triggered by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to weigh on business and consumer confidence in Ghana, despite strong economic growth at the start of 2026, according to the latest assessment from the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee.
The central bank said concerns over the Middle East conflict and its impact on fuel and transport costs contributed to a decline in confidence levels in April, as households and businesses braced for higher inflation and rising operating expenses.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, has become the focus of renewed geopolitical tensions, pushing global crude prices sharply higher and reviving fears of imported inflation across oil-importing economies such as Ghana.
The deterioration in sentiment comes as Ghana’s economy was showing signs of a broad-based recovery. The Bank of Ghana’s Composite Index of Economic Activity expanded 12.6% year-on-year in March 2026, compared with 2.3% growth in the same period a year earlier.
The MPC attributed the acceleration in activity to stronger private-sector credit growth, resilient consumer demand, increased industrial output and improved trade flows.
Still, the central bank warned that escalating global energy prices are beginning to erode some of that momentum.
Business and consumer confidence surveys conducted in April showed optimism remained relatively elevated but weakened compared with February levels, reflecting growing anxiety over the domestic implications of the Middle East crisis.
The pressure is already emerging in Ghana’s private sector indicators. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.3 in April from 51.4 in March, signalling slower expansion in business activity as firms grappled with rising input and transportation costs.
Higher oil prices pose a particular risk for Ghana because of the economy’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products. Increased fuel costs typically feed into transport fares, food prices and production expenses, adding pressure on inflation and household spending power.
The MPC’s latest assessment underscores how external geopolitical shocks continue to threaten the stability of emerging economies, even as domestic conditions improve. For Ghanaian businesses, the risk is that sustained oil price volatility could squeeze margins, weaken demand and complicate the central bank’s efforts to maintain price stability while supporting growth.
