In a bid to reset Ghana’s economy to achieve stability and resilience in the 2025 fiscal year, the government has set some controversial and ambitious macroeconomic targets.
Minister for Finance, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson in his presentation of the 2025 Budget Statement and Economic Policy to parliament reiterated that it is the government’s aim to restore confidence in the economy, enhance the business environment and improve the livelihoods of Ghanaians.
To achieve this objective, certain macroeconomic milestones have been set which will determine the fiscal operations of the government. Let’s take a look at these macroeconomic targets for the year as announced by the Minister and their possible implications for the economy, businesses, and individuals;
Economic Growth/GDP
The new administration is targeting an overall real GDP growth of at least 4.4%. Non-Oil GDP is also projected to grow at 5.3%. Compared to the performance of 2025, this can be said to be a less ambitious target. Overall GDP grew by 5.7% with non-oil GDP expanding by 6% in 2024. The revision for this downward revision is unknown. However, the 2025 targets for growth reflect a deliberate focus on expanding the non-oil sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, services, and manufacturing.
For businesses, this could mean new investment opportunities and an improved business environment. However, whether these projections will materialize depends on the government’s ability to implement policies that promote private sector growth and job creation.
Inflation
The government is seeking to bring down inflation to 11.9% by the end of 2025 from 23.8% in 2024, signifying an ambitious plan to fight the menace which has been eroding the purchasing power of Ghanaians and businesses in recent months and years.
A successful reduction to this level would mean relatively stable prices for goods and services, providing relief to consumers and helping businesses plan with more certainty. However, achieving this target will require disciplined fiscal policies, improved supply chain efficiencies, and a stable exchange rate.
Primary Balance
From a deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2024, the government is seeking to improve the primary balance to a surplus of 1.5% of GDP. This sends a strong signal of excessive expenditure containment measures and efforts to control the country’s debt. While this is good news for investors and creditors, it could also mean tighter public spending, possibly affecting government-funded projects and social interventions.
Gross International Reserves
From an import cover of 4 months, which is equivalent to $8.98 billion in 2024, the government is seeking to end 2025 with a moderated import cover of 3 months. For international trade and foreign investors, the target of maintaining gross international reserves to cover at least three months of imports is reassuring. Strong reserves serve as a buffer against currency depreciation and economic shocks, giving businesses that rely on imports some confidence in the stability of the cedi.
While these macroeconomic targets paint an optimistic picture, their realization will depend on how effectively the government implements its policies, sustains revenue generation efforts, and manages external economic pressures.
For now, businesses and individuals should prepare for a mix of opportunities and challenges as Ghana charts its economic course in 2025.
