Ghana must avoid mistaking recent fiscal improvements and external sector gains for permanent economic strength, as much of the recovery has been supported by expenditure restraint and strong gold receipts, C-NERGY Global has warned.
In its review of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget, C-NERGY said Ghana had moved beyond the period of immediate macroeconomic instability, but the next challenge was building a stronger and more sustainable growth model supported by improved productive capacity.
“The central policy risk is no longer immediate macroeconomic collapse; it is mistaking temporary expenditure suppression and gold-led (external) strength for permanent fiscal and productive capacity,” the report stated.
The advisory firm said the quality and sequencing of government spending in the second half of 2026 would determine whether Ghana records an unusually strong year or establishes a sustainable higher-growth path.
The review noted that the improvement in Ghana’s fiscal position has been driven largely by spending restraint rather than a significant increase in revenue performance.
Revenue and grants were only 4.5% below the first-quarter programme, while commitment expenditure was 29.2% below target, the report said.
According to C-NERGY, the gap explains much of the fiscal outperformance but does not necessarily indicate that government has structurally improved its ability to raise revenue or execute capital projects efficiently.
“This is evidence of credible control, but it does not suggest that the state has structurally raised revenue productivity or improved the speed and quality of capital execution,” the report stated.
The analysis said government now faces the challenge of increasing productive investment, including infrastructure spending, without creating renewed pressure on inflation, the cedi and domestic financing conditions.
C-NERGY also cautioned that Ghana’s strong trade position should not automatically be viewed as a permanent improvement in foreign exchange buffers.
Although the country recorded an US$8.8 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2026, reserves declined to US$12.94 billion, reflecting outflows linked to debt servicing, foreign exchange market interventions, settlement obligations and valuation effects.
The report said the key measure for investors should not only be export growth but also Ghana’s ability to convert export earnings into usable reserves after meeting external obligations.
On the currency front, C-NERGY described the cedi’s recent decline as a “managed normalisation” following its exceptional appreciation in 2025.
The cedi weakened by about 7.9% against the US dollar by the end of June, but the advisory firm warned that authorities must monitor the pace of depreciation to prevent renewed foreign exchange demand driven by store-of-value and speculative motives.
The review further highlighted Ghana’s increasing reliance on gold, which has become a major support for export earnings, reserve accumulation and cedi stability.
While gold has strengthened Ghana’s short-term resilience, C-NERGY warned that the concentration creates exposure to external shocks, particularly changes in global gold prices.
The report also raised concerns about the gap between headline economic growth and household welfare.
Real GDP expanded by 6.4%, while non-oil GDP grew by 6.3%, but several employment-intensive sectors, including fishing, hospitality, real estate and health, contracted.
C-NERGY said the recovery remains uneven, with growth concentrated in sectors such as mining, digital services, transport and trade, while many households and small businesses are yet to experience similar improvements.
The advisory firm said Ghana’s next phase of economic management must focus on strengthening revenue capacity, improving infrastructure, expanding productive investment and creating jobs to ensure that recent gains translate into broader economic prosperity.
