Global oil demand is set for a sharp rebound in 2027 after a subdued increase this year, with OPEC forecasting consumption to rise by 2.4 million barrels a day as non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) economies drive most of the growth.
World oil demand is expected to average 105.8 million barrels a day in 2026, up 0.4 million barrels a day from a year earlier, before rising to 108.2 million barrels a day in 2027, according to OPEC’s September Monthly Oil Market Report.
The upgrade for next year comes as economic activity remains resilient across major emerging markets, particularly Asia. OPEC expects non-OECD oil demand to increase by about 0.5 million barrels a day this year, while OECD consumption is forecast to decline by about 0.1 million barrels a day. In 2027, non-OECD demand is expected to account for roughly 2 million barrels a day of the 2.4 million-barrel-a-day global increase.
Transportation fuels are expected to remain the main source of demand growth, followed by petrochemical feedstock as new capacity comes on stream, particularly in China.
The stronger demand outlook comes against a market that has already tightened in the near term. OPEC said its Reference Basket climbed $3.45 a barrel in August to $86.44, while Brent rose $4.11 to average $88.08 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate gained $3.23 to $82.45.
Prompt crude prices were supported by strong demand for near-term cargoes, particularly from Asian refiners, persistent supply concerns and reduced global crude availability, OPEC said. The resulting market structure moved further into backwardation, a signal of stronger demand for immediate barrels relative to future supply.
Investor positioning also turned more bullish. Combined Brent and WTI net-long positions held by hedge funds and money managers increased 12% between July 28 and Aug. 25, with Brent positions rising about 21%.
On the supply side, liquids production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation is forecast to increase by about 600,000 barrels a day in 2026, reaching 54.8 million barrels a day. OPEC expects another 600,000-barrel-a-day increase in 2027, led by countries including Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina.
Crude production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation rose by 300,000 barrels a day in August to an average of 38.05 million barrels a day, according to secondary sources cited by OPEC.
The demand outlook is underpinned by an improving global economy. OPEC kept its global growth forecast at 3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, with India forecast to expand 6.6% this year and 6.5% next year, while China is projected to grow 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively.
OPEC said the global economy entered the second half of 2026 with encouraging momentum despite geopolitical tensions, renewed inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs. It cited investment in artificial intelligence, expanding international trade and fiscal measures as supports for particularly strong growth in non-OECD Asia.
For oil producers and consumers, the combination of stronger 2027 demand and continued supply growth creates a market increasingly shaped by the pace at which consumption expands relative to new production. OPEC’s latest figures suggest that while supply outside the DoC will continue to rise, the much larger expected increase in global demand next year will provide stronger support for the oil market.
The report also showed that OECD commercial oil inventories remained below historical benchmarks. Stocks rose by 9.8 million barrels in July to 2.763 billion barrels but remained 57 million barrels below a year earlier and 47.9 million barrels below the latest five-year average.
