The global telecommunications sector is expected to reach a total revenue of $1.3 trillion by 2028, even as it grapples with slow growth and pricing pressures. PwC’s Global Telecom Outlook 2024-2028 report indicates that combined service revenues from fixed and mobile networks grew by 4.3% in 2023, hitting $1.14 trillion.
Nonetheless, the report warns that revenue growth is set to decelerate. It stated: “Global industry revenues will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.9% through 2028, below the projected rate of inflation, at which point total revenues will edge up to US$1.3 trillion.”
The report also highlights notable momentum in Nigeria’s telecommunications market, which saw mobile service revenues climb to $7.6 billion in 2024. With an anticipated CAGR of 8% from 2023 to 2028, Nigeria is emerging as one of the fastest-growing telecom markets worldwide.
This robust expansion is largely attributed to a surge in mobile subscriptions rather than improvements in average revenue per user (ARPU). The report explained: “In Nigeria, fixed-line ARPU is projected to decline at a CAGR of –1.4%, while subscriber numbers rise at a CAGR of 9.8%.”
A major obstacle to growth is the increasing commoditization of core products and services, which makes it difficult for telecom companies to raise prices, despite ongoing heavy investments in infrastructure. The report elaborated: “Its core products and services are becoming commodities, meaning it has difficulty raising prices, while it faces a continual need to invest in infrastructure.”
Even with these challenges, there are still opportunities for expansion. PwC forecasts an additional $200 billion in incremental revenue growth by 2028. In its words, “By 2028, there will be an additional US$200 billion in incremental revenue growth up for grabs across the sector.” However, this modest revenue expansion is putting additional pressure on telecom companies to innovate and extract more value from their existing revenue streams.
The report also underscores varied growth patterns across different services and regions. While fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions are set to grow at CAGRs of 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively, between 2023 and 2028, fixed voice subscriptions are expected to contract at a CAGR of -1.8% during the same period. Emerging markets are anticipated to drive overall telecom growth, whereas mature markets might see stagnation or even decline.
According to the report, countries such as India, Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya are registering above-average growth, in contrast to more stable markets like Japan and Switzerland. It stated: “In fixed telecoms, most countries are grouped around the 0 to 6% CAGR range, including the US and China. But a few outliers show much higher growth, notably India, Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya.”
Furthermore, mobile revenue growth shows considerable variation, with Colombia leading at a 10.5% CAGR, followed by India and Argentina, while mature markets continue to experience declines.
