Global inflation is projected to decline more slowly than earlier anticipated, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a reduction to 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, according to its April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This represents a slight downgrade from the 4.5% global inflation forecast set in January 2025, signaling ongoing challenges despite a global economic slowdown.
The IMF’s latest update highlights that inflation is expected to ease gradually across the globe, though the pace of decline will be slower than previously projected. Advanced economies, in particular, are facing persistent inflationary pressures. The IMF has raised its inflation projections for these regions, anticipating that inflation will remain elevated due to factors such as high energy prices, tight labor markets, and lingering supply chain disruptions.
Conversely, inflation in emerging markets and developing economies is expected to decline slightly more than previously anticipated. With inflation pressures easing in some key regions, the overall downward revision for these economies remains relatively modest. However, the IMF warns that inflation is likely to persist in certain areas, exacerbated by global trade tensions and volatility in commodity prices.
“While inflationary pressures are expected to ease over the medium term, the path to stabilization remains fraught with uncertainties,” the IMF noted in its report. “The ongoing challenges for both advanced and emerging economies underscore the need for vigilant policy responses to support price stability and economic recovery.”
Central banks around the world will need to continue fine-tuning their monetary policies to manage these inflationary trends while balancing the risks of slowing economic growth. The IMF emphasized that while global inflation is trending downward, the road to sustained price stability is still uncertain, with the potential for disruptions in key sectors like energy, agriculture, and manufacturing.
