Dangote Industries’ massive oil refinery in Lagos is set to take in up to 400,000 barrels of Nigerian crude per day over the next two months, significantly altering West Africa’s crude supply and reshaping the Atlantic oil market. Scheduled to receive around 24 million barrels of local crude in October and November, the plant’s shift to Nigerian feedstock will drastically reduce the country’s crude exports.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery—the largest in Africa and Europe—will consume about 13 to 14 shipments of Nigeria’s typical monthly crude exports, which are around 50 cargoes. This sharp rise in local consumption could bring Nigerian exports below 1 million barrels a day, according to FGE analyst Ronan Hodgson, tightening the West African crude market in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Though some shipments might face delays, the scheduled volume marks a substantial increase from the average 255,000 barrels per day the Dangote refinery took in during the first half of the year as it gradually ramped up processing. Already operating at 60-70% capacity, the refinery is expected to reach full capacity in the coming months, according to Engineers India Ltd. Chairman Vartika Shukla.
This shift has also reduced Dangote’s reliance on U.S. crude. Earlier this year, the refinery imported millions of barrels of WTI Midland oil but eventually scrapped plans to buy more.
Last month, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) struck a deal with Dangote, agreeing to supply crude in exchange for exclusive distribution rights to the refinery’s gasoline output. This development could help Nigeria achieve its long-held goal of reducing expensive oil product imports.
“If the refinery runs at full capacity, West Africa’s market for gasoline and diesel imports will shrink rapidly,” said Hodgson, highlighting the significant impact Dangote’s operations could have on the region’s energy landscape.
