The latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), has said that global cereal production is expected to reach an all-time high of 2,925 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, marking a 2.3% increase over 2024 levels and a 0.5% rise from FAO’s previous forecast.
The projected increase is driven by yields in major cereal crops, including wheat, maize, and rice. However, FAO also warned that looming hot and dry weather in some key production zones may threaten yield potential, particularly for maize in Europe and Ukraine.
Wheat, Maize, and Rice Lead Production Surge
Wheat output is now forecast at 805.3 million tonnes, driven by strong yields in India and Pakistan. Global maize production is also on the rise, with favourable weather in Brazil and an expanded planting area in India expected to offset dry weather-related declines in parts of the EU and Ukraine.
However, rice production is projected to hit a record 555.6 million tonnes (milled basis), driven by improved crop prospects in Asia’s leading producers, including India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Viet Nam. This comes despite production challenges in Iraq and the United States.
Cereal Use and Stock Levels on the Rise
The FAO report also shows a steady increase in global cereal utilization, which is forecast to reach 2,900 million tonnes in 2025/26, a 0.8% increase from the previous season.
Rising food consumption, especially for rice, sustained demand for coarse grains in ethanol production in India are contributing to the upward trend.
World cereal stocks are projected to hit 889.1 million tonnes by the end of the 2025/26 season, representing a 2.2% increase from their opening levels.
The global stocks-to-use ratio, a key measure of food security is expected to rise to 30.3%, indicating a stable and comfortable supply outlook.
Trade Outlook: Wheat and Rice Exports Climb
Global cereal trade is forecast to grow to 486.9 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 1.2% from the previous season. Wheat and rice exports are expected to drive this increase, with global rice trade projected to hit a record 60.8 million tonnes.
However, maize trade is forecast to decline slightly, while barley and sorghum exports are likely to grow.
Spotlight on Strategic Grain Reserves
Alongside the FAO report, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), also hosted by the FAO, released its monthly Market Monitor, featuring a special focus on strategic grain reserves (SGRs).
The article outlines key principles for designing efficient reserve systems, emphasizing the need for SGRs to be “small, simple, and smart” to support food security without distorting markets.
Implications for Global Food Security
The record production outlook, coupled with growing stockpiles and a stable trade forecast, suggests a broadly positive scenario for global food security.
However, FAO analysts caution that regional disparities, climate risks, and geopolitical tensions could still disrupt supply chains and market stability in the coming months.
Nonetheless, the FAO urged countries to strengthen monitoring systems, improve access to timely market data, and invest in resilient agricultural practices to support long-term food security.
