Not only is the royalty rate in the country’s lithium deal a major cause of concern for analysts, but it is also emerging that the scoping study clause also appears to be problematic.
Some analysts say Ghana may be walking straight into a trap, one that could quietly drain the country of value for decades. This is the concern of Sitsofe Mensah, an analyst with the IMANI Center for Policy and Education.
On paper, a scoping study sounds harmless since it enjoins Atlantic Lithium to conduct a feasibility study to ascertain how the country can add value to its lithium. It is simply a basic assessment to check whether building a refinery in Ghana is possible.
In an open letter to Parliament, the analyst indicated that the scoping study, as captured in the deal, is not a commitment. It does not bind the investor to build anything. It is only a preliminary review, one that can easily conclude that refining is “not feasible,” leaving Ghana with nothing more than raw ore shipments.
And this, analysts warn, is precisely the loophole that could cost the country thousands of jobs and billions in long-term value.
Raw Ore Out, Jobs Out
The experts have emphasized that countries that benefit most from minerals like lithium don’t just dig and ship. They refine, process, and build industries around them. That’s where the serious money and jobs are created.
Unfortunately, under the current design of Ghana’s deal, nothing obliges the investor to do any of that here. If the scoping study gives a negative signal, the company can simply export raw lithium.
Ghana, meanwhile, would be forfeiting the chance to build factories, create high-quality jobs, and nurture new local industries such as battery manufacturing.
For this, he cited Zimbabwe, a lithium-producing country that has banned raw lithium exports entirely. This, the analyst says, is an indication that they understand that the real value is created when you keep the minerals at home and build the industry around them.
“Zimbabwe has boldly banned the export of raw lithium to force local processing. They understand that the real wealth is in the industry, not just the dirt,” he indicated.
He continued that, “Ghana’s ‘Scoping Study’: In contrast, this new agreement only asks the investor to conduct a ‘scoping study’ on whether to refine. This is not a commitment; it is a loophole. You are voting to export jobs and import poverty.”
A Loophole with a Long Shadow
Ghana’s scoping-study clause leaves too much power in the hands of the investor and too little certainty for the country. A study that produces no firm obligation means the decision on whether to industrialize, or not, is effectively outsourced to a foreign company.
And if refining does not happen here, Ghana will remain stuck at the bottom of the value chain, earning low returns while others turn our raw materials into high-value products.
A Call on Members of Parliament
Sitsofe Mensah is urging Parliament not to ignore this warning. He says that Ghana must insist on concrete commitments, not vague reviews, before approving the deal.
The analyst insists that if Ghana wants the jobs, the industries, and the long-term wealth that lithium can bring, it must close the loophole now.
