Ghana’s inflation rate, which fell to 13.7% in June 2025, is expected to decline further in the coming months if current trends in agricultural output and food price stability continue, according to Augustus Goosie Tanoh, Presidential Advisor on the 24-Hour Economy and Accelerated Export Development Programmes.
The 13.7% figure, released by the Ghana Statistical Service, marks the sixth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest rate since December 2021. The sustained drop has been attributed largely to easing food prices, reduced demand-side pressures, and a more stable macroeconomic environment.
Mr. Tanoh pointed to strong agricultural performance outside the cocoa sector as a key driver of the downward inflation trajectory.
“I think we’re going to see even more inflation dropping. Because of the agricultural figures we were seeing, outside of cocoa. I think it grew by 6.7% in the first quarter, if it continues from what we were seeing,” he said.
Tanoh further noted that the trend aligns with projections made by both the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Asiama, and Finance Minister, Dr. Ato Forson, who have forecast inflation easing to around 11% by year-end.
“With the drop in inflation from 18.4% to 13.7%, as was reported on July 2, then, basically, maybe Dr Johnson Asiama, the Bank of Ghana Governor’s prediction and Dr. Ato Forson, Minister of Finance’s prediction, that we may be heading towards an 11% year-on-year inflation rate, is probably accurate,” he added.
Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains a more conservative outlook with a 14% inflation forecast, Tanoh said Ghana’s actual performance could surpass that projection if food supply remains steady and strategic reserves are well managed.
“The fund is saying 14% and others are saying 14.9%, but I think that if the trajectory continues, and because that is happening and because the cost of goods will probably keep dropping, particularly food. Because from August, things kind of drop. The important thing is to generate the requisite harvest and buffer stock that allows you to intervene in the market if prices try to whip up along the normal grade we have,” he explained.
Tanoh noted that beyond relying on seasonal food price trends, government strategy must include building buffer stocks and maintaining the capacity to intervene in the market when necessary to prevent sudden spikes in inflation.
His comments come as Ghana continues to stabilize its economy under an IMF-supported reform programme. While headline inflation is easing, core components such as rent, electricity, and refuse disposal remain elevated, underscoring the need for continued monitoring of sector-specific price drivers.
