International ratings agency, S&P Global Ratings, has predicted that Ghana’s inflation will remain below 10% in 2026, a level the country has not seen in many years.
This forecast is coming after years of battling high inflation that drained household incomes and weakened the cedi. For S&P, Ghana may finally be turning the corner.
S&P’s optimism is tied to the cedi’s recent strength and a rebound in Ghana’s export earnings, particularly from gold and cocoa. In its latest review, which upgraded Ghana to ‘B-/B’ from ‘CCC+/C’ and assigned a stable outlook, S&P said rising export volumes and favorable prices have helped boost Ghana’s foreign reserves to nearly $11 billion, up from $6.8 billion at the end of 2024.
That cushion, worth about 9% of the nation’s projected 2025 GDP, is giving the cedi some breathing space and helping to keep imported prices in check.
From Soaring Prices to a Steady Decline
The forecast marks a sharp contrast to the situation at the start of 2025, when inflation was still hovering above 20%. At the time, prices of food, fuel, and transport were straining household budgets, and the cedi had been through a turbulent period following Ghana’s 2022 debt crisis.
But by mid-2025, the tide began to turn. The cedi gained roughly 30% in value against the U.S. dollar, which is regarded as its best performance in years, while tighter fiscal discipline and improved foreign exchange inflows helped stabilize prices.
By October 2025, inflation had dropped to around 8%, bringing relief to both consumers and businesses that had endured years of rising costs.
S&P attributes this progress to a mix of good fortune and better management as higher global prices for gold and cocoa have lifted export revenues, while government spending controls have reduced pressure on the local currency.
Can Ghana Stay the Course?
But the projection of keeping inflation below 10% in 2026 depends on whether Ghana can maintain this delicate balance. The government’s new fiscal rules, aimed at preventing overspending, are central to this effort.
These include tighter budget controls and stronger public financial management systems designed to stop the cycle of “fiscal slippage”.
Moreover, a fluctuation in the international commodity prices will have consequences for this forecast. Should gold and cocoa prices tumble, the country’s foreign reserves will be affected, which will limit the capacity of the Central Bank to intervene to keep the cedi firm. A depreciation of the cedi can throw inflation of balance and put S&P’s forecast in disarray.
Weather patterns also play a huge role. Poor rains or floods could affect food production, pushing prices back up. S&P also cautions that Ghana’s high debt levels mean a significant portion of its revenue still goes into interest payments, leaving less room to respond to shocks.
The Bottomline
If the forecast holds, 2026 could mark the first time in years that Ghana experiences genuine price stability. Should such a milestone be achieved, that could rebuild public confidence and attract more investment.
But as S&P notes, the country’s economic progress remains fragile. For now, Ghana’s inflation outlook appears promising; however, the fight is not yet over.
