Ghana’s economy is projected to expand 5.9% in 2026, its fastest pace in several years, as booming gold exports, rising investment, and infrastructure spending help consolidate a recovery from the country’s recent debt and inflation crisis, according to a new Afreximbank country assessment.
The lender forecasts growth to edge up from an estimated 5.8% in 2025, supported by increased public investment under President John Mahama’s Big Push infrastructure program, stronger mining output, and a rebound in oil production. New mines, including Ahafo North, alongside expansion at Bibiani, Chirano, and Namdini, are expected to lift export earnings, while renewed drilling at the Jubilee field should support crude production.
The outlook shows a turnaround for Ghana after a period marked by soaring inflation, currency weakness, and debt restructuring. Growth slowed to 3.1% in 2023 following the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions before rebounding to 5.7% in 2024.
Afreximbank said Ghana is benefiting from elevated gold prices and a stronger external position that have helped shield the economy from recent volatility in global energy markets linked to tensions in the Middle East.
Inflation is expected to ease sharply to 7.3% in 2026 from an estimated 14.6% in 2025 and more than 40% in 2023, reflecting a stronger cedi and lower imported price pressures. However, the report warned that higher fuel costs resulting from disruptions to global oil supplies could reverse part of that progress later in the year.
The Bank of Ghana has already signaled caution, holding its benchmark interest rate at 14% in May after cutting rates by a cumulative 1,400 basis points since July 2025.
One of the strongest improvements is expected in Ghana’s external accounts. The country’s trade surplus widened to an estimated $9.3 billion in 2025, driven primarily by gold and cocoa exports, and is projected to remain substantial through 2027. Total reserves excluding gold are forecast to rise from $13.8 billion in 2025 to $14.6 billion in 2026, providing nearly five months of import cover.
The report also projects the cedi to strengthen to about GH¢11 per dollar in 2026 from an estimated GH¢12.6 in 2025, supported by stronger foreign-exchange inflows from gold exports and reserve accumulation by the central bank.
Government finances are expected to remain relatively stable despite plans to increase spending on infrastructure. Afreximbank forecasts the fiscal deficit will widen modestly to 2.6% of gross domestic product in 2026 from an estimated 0.6% in 2025 as authorities allocate about GH¢30 billion to roads, bridges, ports, and logistics projects. Revenue gains from a new sliding-scale gold royalty regime are expected to partly offset the cost of higher spending.
The report cites significant progress in debt restructuring following Ghana’s domestic debt exchange and Eurobond restructuring, with external debt projected to decline to $33.3 billion in 2026 from a peak of $46.6 billion in 2021. External debt as a share of GDP is forecast to fall to 21.3% in 2026 from 45.1% in 2024.
Despite those improvements, Afreximbank cautioned that Ghana remains at high risk of debt distress, echoing assessments by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. The lender said the country’s debt outlook remains vulnerable to swings in commodity prices, export performance, and fiscal discipline, while access to international capital markets remains constrained.
For businesses, the report points to a more favorable operating environment characterized by lower inflation, a stronger currency, improving banking sector conditions, and rising investment in transport and logistics infrastructure. However, it warned that Ghana’s continued dependence on gold, cocoa, and oil exports leaves the economy exposed to global commodity market fluctuations.
