Ghana’s drive to rebuild its foreign exchange and gold reserves could weigh on the recent recovery in its public finances, according to S&P Global.
The rating agency says the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy (GANRAP), which leans heavily on gold to boost external buffers and import cover, could saddle government with large local-currency costs.
S&P puts the potential fiscal hit at between 0.8% and 2.6% of annual GDP, a burden that could become harder to manage if other budget pressures build.
S&P also flagged the Bank of Ghana’s worsening position. The central bank posted a $1.25 billion operating loss in 2025, pushing its negative equity to 6.7% of GDP.
A phased recapitalisation programme is running until 2032, but S&P expects government will need to issue more debt to restore the bank’s capital.
The agency acknowledged efforts to ease the fiscal burden of the gold sector, including regulatory and tax reforms and a planned dynamic sliding-scale royalty.
However, higher global fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict could raise domestic input and transport costs, offsetting some of those gains.
Inflation has dropped from a peak of 54.1% in December 2022 to 5% in August 2026, though S&P notes price pressures have started to rise again.
The agency says the economy has held up relatively well against the Middle East fallout, but higher fuel and transport costs are beginning to hurt businesses and households.
