As the 5th review of Ghana’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme commences this week, economist Courage Boti has expressed strong confidence that the country is well-positioned for a successful outcome.
According to the economist, Ghana has largely ticked the right boxes on the quantitative performance targets that form the backbone of the IMF’s assessments.
He explains that Ghana has made notable progress, from eliminating central bank financing and limiting arrears, to enforcing external borrowing rules and strengthening foreign reserves. In his view, these represent crucial benchmarks that frequently undermine IMF-supported programmes, yet Ghana has managed to keep them firmly under control.
In an interview monitored by The High Street Journal, he pointed out that even in areas where Ghana had previously slipped, such as inflation, corrective actions have been taken to tame that.
Inflation breached targets last year, triggering a monetary policy consultation clause, but Boti noted that a tighter policy stance has since guided inflation back within touching distance of the IMF’s band.
“The next sprint of inflation could likely bring us fully within the target,” he added.
Other macro indicators, he says, are also holding steady. The cedi has broadly stabilised, reserves have built up, and the Bank of Ghana continues to avoid deficit financing; all of which Boti describes as signs of “commendable fiscal and monetary discipline.”
Looking ahead, he identified the IMF’s key watchpoints for the June 2025 targets, such as floors on non-oil public revenue and social spending, ceilings on arrears and pre-financing loans, and progress on structural benchmarks such as arrears audits, the new Fiscal Responsibility Act, the restructuring of the ECD strategy, and reforms to asset declaration laws.
Although he acknowledges that not all structural reforms may be fully completed, he argued that this has never been the sole basis for failing a review, as the Fund often allows countries additional time.
“The structural benchmarks have not been the basis for not passing a review. You most likely will be, if you are not there, you’ll be allowed time to look at them over time. So I think we’re looking good for a successful review, if you ask me,” Courage Boti remarked.
The economist’s optimism is welcome news. The disciplined fiscal management, stable currency, improved inflation, and visible progress on reforms make Ghana a good candidate to pass its 5th IMF review.
This milestone would help unlock continued donor support, reinforce investor confidence, and propel the country’s economic recovery.
