Ghana is on track to end 2025 with single-digit inflation, falling below the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) 12% target, according to Deloitte’s latest West Africa Inflation Update.
The advisory firm highlighted a sustained disinflationary trend in recent months, creating room for the central bank to begin reducing interest rates. Deloitte projects that the easing cycle could start as early as the July 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Lower interest rates are expected to boost credit to the real sector, supporting business activity and accelerating economic growth.
Deloitte added that ongoing fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy are key contributors to the declining inflation, but warned of risks that could reverse the trend.
Upside Risks Remain
Despite the encouraging inflation outlook, Deloitte cautioned that external shocks and domestic cost pressures could drive prices up again.
Notably, a 2.45% hike in electricity tariffs has increased production costs, with potential knock-on effects on consumer prices.
The firm also expressed concern over the new GH₵1.00 fuel levy on petroleum products, which could raise transportation and fuel costs, pushing up prices across sectors.
Inflation Declines in June
Ghana’s headline inflation dropped to 13.7% in June 2025, down sharply from 18.4% in May, driven by declining fuel prices, reduced transport fares, and continued appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi.
The month-on-month inflation figure marked a rare deflation of -1.2%, the first since August 2024.
Deloitte said this reflects easing pressure on household budgets, especially in food and transport.
Also, the food inflation sub-index fell to 16.3%, while non-food inflation also saw a decline, contributing to the overall downtrend.
Hence, with inflation falling faster than expected, Ghana is inching closer to achieving macroeconomic stability.
However, Deloitte urged policymakers to remain vigilant and responsive to external risks and policy trade-offs that could derail the country’s progress.
