Economist and Political Risk Analyst, Dr. Theo Acheampong, is reiterating the caution that Ghana’s gold-backed gains are time-bound and hence the country should make the most out of it while it lasts.
In his latest analysis, the economist did not mince words that gold is the hero in Ghana’s recent economic recovery story. Dr. Theo Acheampong goes further to reveal an interesting piece of information that the country may only have a short window to consolidate the gains from the gold boom.
He reveals that the government has about two to three years to turn today’s gold boom into lasting financial stability. His analysis shows a strong link between rising gold exports and Ghana’s improving reserve position, especially after the 2022–23 debt crisis.
He notes that when the crisis hit, foreign reserves dropped sharply and the cedi weakened. In response, the Bank of Ghana stepped up its domestic gold purchase programme, buying gold directly from local miners to rebuild foreign exchange buffers.
The results, his analysis shows, have been dramatic. The numbers show gold exports rose from $7.6 billion in 2023 to $11.6 billion in 2024. By 2025, exports are estimated to hit $20 billion, helped by strong global prices and the creation of the Ghana Gold Board.
At the same time, Ghana’s gross international reserves climbed to a record $13.8 billion, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover, the highest level in recent memory.
Experts agree that the more gold Ghana exports, the more breathing room the country has to pay for imports like fuel, medicine, and machinery. The statistical relationship, he emphasizes, is that higher gold exports are strongly linked to a stronger import buffer.
But Dr. Acheampong was quick to warn that this boom will not last forever. Gold prices move in cycles. What goes up can come down. If prices correct in the next few years, export earnings could fall sharply, and so could the pace of reserve buildup.
His analysis suggests that Ghana must treat this moment as an opportunity, not a guarantee. In the next two to three years, he recommends that the country build reserves aggressively to protect the cedi. In addition, reduce external debt vulnerabilities and strengthen fiscal discipline.
Other experts recommend that the government must also invest in productive sectors that can earn foreign exchange beyond gold.
Dr. Theo Acheampong further adds that there is also an urgent need to fix supply chain challenges, especially in artisanal and small-scale mining. Traceability concerns remain a risk in global markets, and addressing them is central to the mandate of the Ghana Gold Board.
“Ghana has potentially 2 to 3 year window to consolidate these gains before gold prices start mean reversion [correction]. However, maximising this opportunity also requires addressing supply chain concerns around traceability, particularly in the artisanal and small-scale mining sector. The latter is a key focus of the work of the @GhanaGOLDBOD,” the economist noted.
For Dr. Theo Acheampong, if the current gold boom is managed well and consolidated, the country can attain long-term stability. If mismanaged, the country could find itself exposed again when prices fall.
Meanwhile, the government has launched a new initiative dubbed the Ghana Accelerated National Reserves Programme (GANRAP). The new initiative is programmed to steadily build the country’s foreign reserves to 15 months of import cover by 2028.
The reactions to the policy among experts have been mixed. For instance, Prof. Williams Kwasi Peprah of the Andrews University in the United States agrees that the policy is laudable given the level of insurance and protection it can give the country in the incidents of global shocks. However, it adds that the policy itself is not a straight jacket without other important complementary policies such as sequencing, traceability and transparency.
Dr. Dennis Nsafoah, an Assistant Professor of Economics at Niagara University, however, questions the essence of the country keeping such enormous reserves. According to him, the cost of maintaining such huge reserves is significant.
For now, the consensus is that, for the stability of the economy, the country must take advantage of the gold price boom to build resilience and buffers against external shocks.
This goes with the old adage that “make hay while the sun shines.”
