It is becoming increasingly clear that if the Ghana Cocoa Board does not take decisive action, Ghana could fall to third, or even possibly fourth, place in the global cocoa rankings, looking at how Indonesia and Ecuador are steadily increasing output.
Ghana, long regarded as one of the world’s leading cocoa producers, faces growing pressure to maintain its position in the global cocoa league. According to a league table compiled by The High Street Journal, Côte d’Ivoire remains the world’s largest cocoa producer, with an estimated 1.75 million metric tons in 2024/25, representing roughly 40% of global supply.
Ghana follows with around 600,000 metric tons, while Ecuador and Indonesia are closing the gap, with projected outputs of 650,000 and 200,000 metric tons, respectively, by 2026/27.
Ghana’s cocoa production has been volatile in recent years, falling from 654,000 tons in 2022/23 to 530,000 tons in 2023/24, before a tentative recovery to 600,000 tons. Several factors are driving this decline: aging plantations, the spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD), illegal mining activities encroaching on cocoa farms, and unpredictable weather patterns linked to climate change. Gold miners often clear or damage cocoa farms in search of minerals, leaving farmers with reduced or destroyed crops and significant economic losses.
Adding to the pressure is widespread dissatisfaction among farmers over farmgate prices. Many smallholder farmers receive only 70% of the world cocoa price, far below the earnings of their counterparts in Ecuador, who take home about 90%. This disparity reduces farmers’ incentives to invest in farm maintenance, improved seedlings, fertilizers, and modern farming methods, contributing to lower yields and declining competitiveness.
Meanwhile, Ecuador’s cocoa production is rising, projected to exceed 650,000 metric tons by 2026/27. The 50,000-ton gap between Ghana and Ecuador represents an opportunity for Ecuador to overtake Ghana if current trends continue. Growth has been supported by high cocoa prices, public and private investment, and the adoption of agroforestry systems, which combine cocoa with shade trees, plantains, coffee, and fruit.
These methods reduce disease risk, protect biodiversity, and boost yields, currently averaging around 800 kilograms per hectare, compared with less than 500 kilograms per hectare in West Africa.
Indonesia has also steadily increased production, from 160,000 tons in 2023/24 to roughly 200,000 tons in 2025/26, primarily from smallholder farms on Sulawesi Island.
Global cocoa prices more than doubled last year, surpassing $12,000 per ton after poor harvests and disease outbreaks in West Africa. Prices have since declined by roughly a third but remain historically high, creating both opportunities and challenges for producers.
Looking at the production projections, it is clear that without decisive measures, Ghana risks slipping from second to third, or possibly even fourth, in the global cocoa rankings. Urgent reforms could help Ghana close the gap with Ecuador, stabilize production, and preserve its role as a leading global cocoa supplier.
