Petrol and diesel prices at Ghanaian pumps are projected to rise by as much as 7.50% in the pricing window running from 16th to 31st July 2026, driven by renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz that have reversed a sharp mid-month decline in international crude prices, according to the latest Pricing Outlook released by the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
Diesel is expected to record the steepest increase, rising between 5.64% and 7.50%, pushing the cash ex-pump price to GHS16.00 per litre and the credit price to GHS17.00 per litre. Petrol will climb between 3.79% and 5.31%, taking the cash price to GHS14.52 per litre, while LPG faces a more modest increase of 1.10% to 1.30%, reaching GHS16.00 per kilogramme on a cash basis.
Floor prices for the window have also been adjusted upward, with diesel’s floor rising 5.98% to GHS14.35 per litre and petrol’s floor increasing 3.83% to GHS13.28 per litre.
The projected increases follow a volatile fortnight on the international crude market. Benchmark prices fell sharply in mid-July, declining 7.96% from US$78.12 per barrel to US$71.90 per barrel, as tanker traffic through the Gulf increased and oversupply concerns weighed on sentiment. That decline proved short-lived. Dated crude strengthened to near US$77 per barrel following a ceasefire breach on 7th and 8th July, before Brent crude surged past US$84 per barrel by 14th July after reported Iranian missile strikes on two UAE tankers.
COMAC’s report notes that the development has “restored a geopolitical risk premium, reversing part of the earlier oil-price decline,” extending crude’s rally to roughly 12% since the mid-month low.
Compounding the pressure on pump prices, the cedi weakened against the US dollar during the 16th July window, moving from GHS11.4333 to GHS11.4970, a depreciation of 0.55%. Refined product prices had already shifted before the crude rally intensified, with diesel recording the sharpest gain of 8.14% in the 16th July window, followed by petrol at 4.96%, while LPG eased marginally by 0.92%.
The timing adds further strain for consumers, coming exactly one month after government and industry jointly withdrew a temporary price-cushioning intervention that had shielded petrol and diesel buyers from steeper increases. With that measure fully removed since 16th June, pump prices now track international market movements, exchange rate swings and the full weight of taxes, levies and regulatory margins, which together account for 26% of the price build-up, with an additional 4% allocated to marketers’ and dealers’ margins.
COMAC’s outlook points to a wider supply picture that remains unsettled. Global oil supply rebounded by 4.1 million barrels per day to 98.8 million barrels per day in June as flows through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, but output stayed 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Production is projected to average 102.6 million barrels per day for 2026, a decline of 3.7 million barrels per day, unless hostilities in the region subside quickly.
Annual demand contractions are forecast to ease from 4.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter, before demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter narrows the year’s overall decline to roughly 1 million barrels per day.
For Ghanaian motorists and businesses reliant on diesel-powered logistics, the renewed volatility in the Strait of Hormuz has translated directly into higher costs at the pump, ending a brief reprieve that followed June’s price decline.
