Fitch Solutions has warned that Ghana’s economic growth outlook faces downside risks stemming from volatile commodity markets and potential security spillovers from the Sahel region.
In its latest assessment of Ghana’s 2026 outlook, the ratings and research firm said external factors posed the most immediate threats to the economy, with risks skewed to the downside.
Fitch identified international gold prices as Ghana’s principal vulnerability, given the country’s heavy reliance on gold exports to support foreign exchange earnings and external balances.
The agency’s Commodities team projected a record average gold price of about $3,700 per ounce in 2026 but cautioned that a sharp correction could occur under certain global conditions.
It explained that a resurgence of inflation in the United States, which could prompt renewed monetary tightening, or an unexpected easing of global geopolitical tensions, might trigger a sudden decline in gold prices.
“Such a scenario would see Ghana’s external accounts face immediate headwinds, eroding international reserves and putting the cedi under greater pressure than currently assumed,” the report said.
Fitch also noted that sustained pressure on the cedi would likely feed into higher domestic inflation, potentially forcing the Bank of Ghana to delay planned policy rate cuts or resume monetary tightening.
It said such an outcome would weigh on economic activity and slow the pace of recovery.
Beyond commodity market risks, the report also highlighted security concerns linked to the worsening Islamist insurgency in the Sahel as a significant threat with fiscal and economic implications for Ghana.
Although Fitch’s baseline projection assumes Ghana will avoid large-scale violence, it warned of the tangible risk of cross-border incursions from neighbouring Burkina Faso into northern parts of the country.
“An incursion would force the government to channel additional resources to the armed forces,” the agency said.
It noted that unplanned security spending would confront government with difficult fiscal choices, including diverting funds from critical development projects or increasing borrowing.
According to Fitch, higher borrowing would raise interest costs and crowd out productive capital expenditure, further constraining Ghana’s medium-term growth prospects.
