Fitch Solutions is forecasting another round of monetary easing from the Bank of Ghana (BoG), predicting a 100 basis point cut to the benchmark policy rate at the central bank’s September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
The move, if realised, could potentially bring the policy rate down to 24%, extending July’s sharp 300bps reduction as inflation falls and the cedi posts one of its strongest rallies in recent history.
“We expect that the BoG will cut the policy rate by 100bps to 24.00% at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September,” Fitch Solutions stated, pointing to a “further decline in the coming months, supported by a stronger exchange rate.”
Annual consumer price inflation slowed to 13.7% in June, its lowest since 2021, and Fitch projects it could drop to 10–12% in August, aided by a cedi that has appreciated roughly 40% year-on-year against the US dollar. This currency strength, combined with a 17% year-on-year decline in Brent crude prices, has helped ease imported inflation for goods such as rice, petrol, and vehicles.
Fitch says the improved inflation outlook “provides the central bank with room to proceed with another rate cut,” adding that the current trajectory supports further easing through 2025 and 2026.
July’s aggressive rate cut to 25% marked a clear shift in policy direction after over two years of monetary tightening. At the time, Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama underscored that “macroeconomic conditions have significantly improved, inflation expectations are broadly anchored, external buffers have strengthened, and confidence in the economy is returning.” He also hinted that “the central bank would likely reduce the policy rate further, should the disinflation trend continue.”
Fitch now expects the policy rate to fall to 23% by end-2025 and 20% by end-2026, a path that could lower borrowing costs, stimulate private sector credit growth, and provide relief for households and businesses still grappling with high lending rates.
