What may be one of the most significant battles in Donald Trump’s trade war is about to unfold.
The Trump administration heads to the US Supreme Court on Wednesday, where it faces small businesses and a coalition of states arguing that most of the tariffs imposed under the former president are unlawful and should be struck down.
If the court rules against the administration, the decision could unravel the core of Trump’s trade policies, including the broad global tariffs first announced in April. It may also force the government to refund part of the billions of dollars collected from import taxes.
A final ruling will come only after months of legal review and deliberation by the justices.
Trump has framed the case in national terms, warning that a loss would weaken his ability to negotiate trade agreements and undermine national security.
He has said he will not attend the hearing in order not to overshadow the process.
“It’s not about me. It’s about our country,” he said, adding that a defeat would leave the US in a “financial mess.”
For businesses in the US and abroad, the stakes are also high. Many firms have already absorbed steep increases in import costs and are struggling to manage shifting trade policies.
Learning Resources, a US educational toy supplier, expects to pay about $14 million in tariff costs this year, seven times more than in 2024.
“They’ve thrown our business into unbelievable disruption,” said CEO Rick Woldenberg.
Other businesses acknowledge that even if the court rules against the tariffs, the impact won’t be immediately reversed.
“We are hopeful this is ruled illegal, but we are also trying to prepare for the possibility that the tariffs remain,” said Bill Harris of Cooperative Coffees. His company has already paid about $1.3 million in tariffs since April.
A Test of Presidential Power
The central legal question is how far the president’s authority extends.
Trump imposed the tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which allows the president to act quickly during emergencies. His administration argued that drug trafficking and later the US trade deficit constituted emergencies requiring immediate action.
Opponents say the law does not authorize the president to impose tariffs and that only Congress has that power. More than 200 Democratic lawmakers and one Republican senator have submitted briefs supporting this argument.
Several lower courts have already ruled against the administration.
Economic and Political Ripple Effects
An estimated $90 billion in tariffs is tied to the outcome of this case.
If the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, the government may have to process refund claims, although businesses say refunds would not undo the operational strain already caused.
Cooperative Coffees said it had to take an extra line of credit, increase prices and absorb lower profit margins.
“This is an energy drain like I’ve never seen,” said Harris.
What Happens Next
The White House has indicated that if it loses, it will seek alternative legal grounds to impose tariffs, though these would require more procedural steps and longer timelines.
The ruling will also influence international trade partners. The European Union, for example, is delaying ratification of a recent trade agreement until the court’s decision becomes clear.
Some exporters, such as Swiss chocolatier Daniel Bloch, say the tariffs have already cut deeply into profits.
“If the court makes the tariffs go away, that would be a positive sign,” he said. “But we are not confident it would resolve everything.”
