Donald Trump has yet to move back into the Oval Office, but already nations across the world are sizing up their place in the past — and future — US president’s books.
Africa will likely feature because of its position in the geopolitical competition between the US and China — if it makes it into Washington priorities at all.
Trump paid scant regard to the continent in his first term, when his most memorable gesture was to denigrate African countries. Still, top members of his national-security team identified the region as a key theater in Washington’s global contest with China, and are likely to do so again.
His administration may embrace some elements of Joe Biden’s policies, including the Lobito Corridor, a US-led project that aims to link Congo, Zambia and Angola via railroad to export battery metals that might otherwise be monopolized by China.
“Strategic initiatives like the Lobito Corridor will continue and possibly even be increased,” Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to the Sahel, said in an interview.
The Trump administration will probably change the US foreign-aid budget, though, which many Republicans say is too large and doesn’t fit in with American objectives.
Republicans are also likely to end elements of the Biden administration’s pro-LGBTQ policies, which Pham describes as “social engineering.” That would anger rights groups and benefit countries like Uganda, which the US kicked out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act over its crackdown on gay rights.
The big unknown is what impact Trump’s proposed moves to hike tariffs on imports into the US will have.
There’s a risk that trade tensions could drive up consumer prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis that’s already unsettled politics in nations across the continent.
If a week is a long time in politics, four years may feel like a lifetime — whether you are a friend or foe.
