South Africa’s largest farm-industry lobby, Agri SA, has questioned the accuracy of agricultural growth data reported by Statistics South Africa for 2024. The statistics agency had indicated a sharp contraction in the farming sector, reporting a 15.5% decline in the first nine months and a 28.8% drop in the third quarter, the worst decline in over 30 years. This contributed to an unexpected contraction of 0.3% in the nation’s overall economic performance in the third quarter.
In response to these figures, Agri SA commissioned the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) to review the data. The BFAP report, published on December 22, 2024, indicated that the actual contraction in the farming industry was closer to 5% to 6%, much lower than what was reported. The report suggested that Statistics South Africa consider an upward revision of 10.8 billion rand ($590 million) for agricultural GDP after accounting for inflation.
BFAP acknowledged the difficulty of sourcing real-time agricultural data but called for a review of the methods used by the statistics agency. According to the revised analysis, the overall economic growth would have been 0.7% so far this year, instead of the 0.4% reported earlier.
South Africa’s agriculture, which has been growing slowly over the past decade, faced additional challenges from an El Niño-induced drought that led to a 23% drop in corn production, a staple in the country. The prolonged underperformance in agriculture has further strained the economy, which has been expanding by less than 1% annually, below the rate of population growth.
This review underscores the importance of accurate data in assessing key sectors like agriculture, which is vital for understanding the true state of the South African economy.
