European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is meeting U.S. President Donald Trump today, Sunday in a last-ditch effort to finalize a trade agreement that could shield European exporters from steep U.S. tariffs.
The deal, if concluded, would set a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods, ending months of uncertainty for businesses across the bloc. However, it falls far short of the EU’s initial ambition for a zero-tariff agreement.
Trump, currently in Scotland for bilateral meetings and golf, described von der Leyen as “a highly respected leader” and said he was “looking forward” to their meeting at his Turnberry golf course. He estimated a “50-50 chance” of striking a deal, noting Brussels was eager to avoid further escalation.
The U.S. currently imposes tariffs on more than 70% of EU exports, including a 50% duty on steel and aluminium, 25% on cars, and 10% on most other goods. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs to 30% on August 1, a move EU officials warn would severely disrupt transatlantic trade.
For Europe, a 15% tariff would be a bitter compromise but still preferable to higher rates that could wipe out entire industries. For Trump, the deal would represent his largest trade agreement yet, surpassing the $550 billion accord signed with Japan earlier this week, as he pushes to rebalance U.S. trade relationships.
Negotiations remain intense, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick meeting EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic ahead of the leaders’ talks. Both sides remain “cautiously optimistic” about reaching an accord, though key sticking points remain on high tariffs for steel, aluminium, and other sectors.
If no deal is reached, the EU is ready to retaliate with countertariffs worth €93 billion ($109 billion) on U.S. goods.
