Africa stands to strengthen trade resilience and accelerate industrialisation by moving beyond raw commodity exports, as global markets for wheat, rubber and cotton follow sharply diverging paths, according to Afreximbank’s Commodity Bulletin, Number 2 for 2025.
The report finds that abundant global wheat supplies are easing price pressures for African importers, while a structural shortage in natural rubber is driving tighter markets and higher prices that could benefit African producers. Cotton, meanwhile, remains constrained by excess inventories and subdued trade flows, reinforcing the urgency for deeper processing and competitiveness in textiles.
Wheat glut eases import costs
Global wheat output is projected to reach a record 837.8 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, underpinned by favourable growing conditions and higher yields across major exporters including Canada, the European Union, Australia, Russia and Argentina. Ending stocks are forecast to rise to nearly 275 million tonnes, keeping prices under downward pressure.
For Africa’s largest wheat importers, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya, this supply-heavy outlook is improving affordability and availability. Afreximbank estimates that wheat imports into these markets will increase by an average of about 8 percent year-on-year in 2025/26. Nigeria’s imports alone are expected to climb to 6.7 million tonnes, supported by lower global prices, stronger foreign-exchange conditions and sustained demand for wheat-based foods.
The report also notes a gradual shift in Nigeria’s sourcing patterns. While the European Union remains the largest supplier, its share is edging lower as millers increase purchases of higher-protein wheat from the United States and Canada to blend with local output and improve flour quality.
Rubber shortage creates pricing power
In contrast, the global rubber market has tightened for a fifth consecutive year as production growth lags demand. Global output is forecast to expand by only about 0.3 % in 2026, while consumption is expected to rise by nearly six times that pace, leaving a persistent supply deficit.
Although Southeast Asia continues to dominate global production, rising output from West Africa, particularly Côte d’Ivoire, alongside Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia and Cameroon,is gradually diversifying supply. Afreximbank argues that elevated prices and renewed interest from international buyers create a strategic opening for African producers to industrialise the rubber value chain, where margins rise sharply in processing, manufacturing and branded finished goods.
Cotton weighed down by stocks
Cotton markets remain softer. Prices are about 9 % lower year-to-date, reflecting production that exceeds consumption and a build-up in global stocks, now estimated at about 76 million bales. Global cotton trade declined by an estimated 4 % in the 2024/25 season, with Vietnam and Bangladesh overtaking China as the world’s largest importers as Beijing increasingly relies on domestic reserves.
For African producers, Afreximbank underscores cotton’s long-term strategic importance but stresses that meaningful gains will depend on expanding domestic ginning, spinning, fabric production and garment manufacturing, where value capture is significantly higher than in raw lint exports.
From commodities to industry
Taken together, the Bulletin argues that Africa’s commodity future hinges less on price cycles and more on policy coherence, investment in processing capacity and regional integration. By scaling value addition across wheat-based foods, rubber products and cotton textiles, the continent can reduce vulnerability to global price swings and reposition itself within higher-value segments of international trade.
