Ghana’s fuel market is set for another split in the second pricing window of August, with diesel prices expected to rise while petrol and LPG prices fall, reflecting diverging movements in international refined fuel markets.
Diesel prices are projected to increase by 1.39% from August 16, while petrol prices are expected to decline by 2.90% and LPG by 0.93%, the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) said in its latest pricing outlook.
The contrasting movements come despite a 2.02% rise in average crude oil prices to $90.41 a barrel in mid-August, as geopolitical tensions and concerns over possible supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz kept oil markets elevated.
Refined products have nevertheless moved in different directions, with international diesel prices rising 2.86%, while petrol and LPG prices fell 5.46% and 2.54%, respectively.
COMAC said diesel had come under renewed pressure following attacks on a Russian refinery and a Saudi refining facility, tightening concerns around refined-product supplies. The developments have kept diesel prices firmer even as the cost of petrol and LPG has eased.
The divergence is reflected in the National Petroleum Authority’s price floors for the second August pricing window. The petrol floor has been cut by GH¢0.61 per litre to GH¢13.92, from GH¢14.53, while the LPG floor has fallen by GH¢0.08 per kilogram to GH¢10.98, from GH¢11.06.
Diesel, by contrast, has risen by GH¢0.22 per litre to GH¢15.19, from GH¢14.97.
The increase would have been higher without a temporary government-industry intervention introduced earlier this month. The government reduced the regulatory margin on diesel by GH¢2 per litre for one month, bringing the diesel price floor down from GH¢16.97 to GH¢14.97 in the first pricing window of August.
COMAC said the intervention is expected to continue cushioning consumers from the full impact of higher international diesel prices.
The exchange rate is also becoming an important variable in the outlook. The cedi weakened to about GH¢11.80 per dollar between July 27 and August 11, according to bank averages, but had recovered to GH¢10.98 per dollar by August 14, according to the Bank of Ghana.
COMAC said a sustained improvement in foreign exchange supply could lead to further cedi appreciation and reduce the local cost of imported petroleum products in subsequent pricing windows.
The stronger currency offers some relief at a time when international oil prices remain elevated, but the benefit is unlikely to be evenly distributed across fuel products given the continued pressure on global diesel markets.
The latest projections therefore leave petrol and LPG users facing lower benchmark prices from August 16, while diesel users remain exposed to higher costs. The difference could be particularly relevant for commercial transport and businesses where diesel forms a significant part of operating expenses.
