After nearly two years in steep decline, Ghana’s cocoa sector has finally shown signs of recovery. The latest economic data for the first quarter of 2025 reveals that the sector grew by 3.4% year-on-year, its first positive growth in six quarters.
This return to expansion is a welcome development for a sector that has long been at the heart of Ghana’s agricultural economy. The cocoa industry had enjoyed a strong performance from 2020 through 2021, beginning modestly with growth rates just under 2% and then surging to double-digit figures in 2021.
The final quarter of that year marked a peak, with growth reaching 10.8%, underpinned by favourable weather, stable global demand, and strong output from local producers.
However, the story began to change in 2022. While the sector stayed above water, growth slowed considerably and ended the year with a meagre 0.6% expansion in the fourth quarter.
In 2023, the trend took a sharper turn as the sector slipped into negative territory, ending that year with a -1.1% contraction.
What followed in 2024 was far more severe. Each quarter brought deepening losses. From a sharp -20.2% contraction in the first quarter, the cocoa sector fell further to -26.0% in both the second and third quarters, before closing the year at -21.4%.
It was one of the toughest periods in recent history for Ghana’s cocoa economy, with farmers and supply chain actors bearing the brunt of climate shocks, ageing tree stock, global price fluctuations, and pest-related challenges.
The 3.4% rebound in the first quarter of 2025, therefore, stands out, not just statistically, but symbolically. It may not erase the damage of the past two years, but it points to a turning point.
