Fitch Solutions expects the Bank of Ghana to begin easing its benchmark interest rate in the second half of 2025, projecting a cumulative 200 basis point cut to 26% by year-end. A further 300 basis point reduction is forecast for 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 23%. The outlook marks a shift after an extended period of monetary tightening aimed at containing inflation and stabilizing the cedi.
The forecast is based on expectations of a gradual slowdown in inflation, supported by relative exchange rate stability and falling energy prices. With macroeconomic conditions showing signs of improvement, Fitch anticipates the central bank will cautiously move toward a more accommodative stance after maintaining restrictive policy for nearly two years.
BoG in March, raised its benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 28%, a move that surprised markets and reflected concerns about persistent inflation risks. It was the first decision under Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama, who succeeded Dr. Ernest Addison earlier this year. The rate hike signaled a more aggressive posture in the short term, but Fitch expects that stance to soften as inflation pressures ease and broader economic conditions stabilize.
Fitch projects the Ghanaian cedi will remain broadly stable through the rest of the year, supported by high global gold prices and reduced oil import costs. Gold is expected to average $3,100 per ounce in 2025, up nearly 30% from 2024, amid geopolitical tensions, monetary easing in the US, and continued market uncertainty.
It also forecasts Ghana’s current account surplus to widen to 6.9% of GDP this year, its strongest performance in recent history. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise from $6.4 billion to $11.5 billion, enhancing the central bank’s capacity to manage potential exchange rate volatility.
The cedi is projected to close the year at GHS 15.5 per US dollar, with an annual average of GHS 15.3. These dynamics, Fitch notes, create space for the Bank of Ghana to begin a cautious policy reversal, assuming inflation continues to decline and fiscal conditions remain broadly stable.
