The Ghana Association of Banks has cautioned financial institutions to prepare for emerging risks as the country approaches its exit from the International Monetary Fund’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme in August 2026.
According to the Association, the withdrawal of IMF programme support could expose banks to fresh pressures, even as macroeconomic indicators show continued improvement.
In a briefing, the Association acknowledged that recent stabilisation efforts had boosted confidence in the economy and created space for credit expansion. However, it warned that the operating environment could become more volatile once external programme support ends.
Key risks identified include possible fluctuations in global interest rates, the threat of capital flow reversals, and renewed pressure on the cedi. These factors, the Association noted, could tighten liquidity conditions and increase funding costs across the banking sector.
It stressed that such external shocks could put strain on banks’ balance sheets if not proactively managed.
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To strengthen resilience, the Association urged banks to reinforce their risk management frameworks, maintain prudent lending practices and diversify their portfolios. It particularly encouraged increased financing for infrastructure projects and high-growth sectors of the economy.
The Association said a disciplined and forward-looking approach would be critical to safeguarding financial stability and ensuring the banking sector remains strong after the IMF programme concludes.
On the inflation outlook, the Ghana Association of Banks projected that inflation would remain in single digits throughout 2026, supported by continued fiscal discipline as the IMF-backed programme winds down.
It attributed the positive outlook to stronger external reserves, tight monetary policy and ongoing fiscal consolidation, but cautioned that inflationary risks could resurface once IMF support ends.
The Association pointed to the sharp decline in inflation to 5.4 percent in 2025 as evidence of a strong disinflation phase, driven by tight monetary conditions, fiscal consolidation and relative exchange-rate stability.
Looking beyond 2026, it noted that sustaining low inflation would depend on anchoring inflation expectations, maintaining fiscal discipline and addressing structural challenges such as food price pressures and import dependence to prevent a rebound.
