Africa’s demand for refined oil products is projected to increase from about 4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2024 to over 6 million bbl/d by 2050, according to the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) 2026 Outlook Report, The State of African Energy.
Authored by AEC Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk, the report emphasizes that population growth, urbanization, and industrialization will drive this surge, creating significant opportunities for energy security and economic development. With Africa’s population expected to reach nearly 2.4 billion by 2050, per capita consumption, currently among the lowest globally, is anticipated to rise, particularly in sub-Saharan countries.
Gasoline and Diesel Demand to Soar
The report highlights Africa as the continent likely to lead global gasoline demand growth over the long term, with consumption projected to exceed 2.2 million bbl/d by 2050.
Diesel, critical for heavy industry and extractive operations, will see demand rise nearly 50% to just under 2.7 million bbl/d, driven by mining, transportation, and infrastructure expansion, particularly in Angola, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zimbabwe.
Aviation and Cleaner Fuels
Jet fuel and kerosene consumption is rebounding strongly, projected to rise 65% by 2050 as intra-regional air travel and tourism expand. Meanwhile, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) adoption for clean cooking remains low, with only 20 million tonnes consumed annually.
The report notes that widespread LPG use could dramatically reduce deforestation, indoor pollution, and carbon emissions, yet growth remains constrained by regulatory, financing, and distribution challenges.
Infrastructure and Investment Needs
According to the report, Africa will require over USD 20 billion in downstream infrastructure investment by 2050 to meet growing refined product needs.
Flagship projects such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, along with smaller initiatives in Angola and Uganda, are necessary but insufficient alone to meet the continent’s anticipated consumption.
“The report underscores that Africa’s energy future is one of immense growth,” said Ayuk. “Policymakers, investors, and international partners must prioritize local refining, efficient trading, and cleaner fuel adoption to meet the needs of 2.4 billion people by mid-century.”
