The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has warned that Africa’s economic engine runs on imported fuel and that’s a dangerous gamble, A mere 30-day halt in petroleum product imports could trigger a continent-wide shutdown, paralysing transport, industry, and essential services.
Despite producing over five million barrels of crude oil daily, Africa still imports more than 70% of its refined petroleum products, leaving the continent dangerously exposed to global supply disruptions.
“If imports were to stop, the collapse wouldn’t just be technical, it would be systemic,” said Anibor Kragha, ARDA’s Executive Secretary, during the ARDA Week 2025 conference in Cape Town. “Without energy sovereignty, there is no sustainable development.”
A Continent on the Brink in a Fuel Crisis
A prolonged disruption would ripple through every sector. Jet fuel shortages would isolate countries, stranding passengers and halting trade flights. Millions of tonnes of goods, food, and medicine would be stuck in ports. Diesel generators, powering hospitals, telecom towers, water systems, and banks would grind to a halt, cutting critical services.
Mining, a major foreign exchange earner in South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, the DRC, and Zambia, would stall within days, slashing billions from national revenues. Urban water supplies could collapse, and rural clinics could be plunged into darkness.
Why Africa Can’t Meet Its Own Fuel Needs
Although Africa has over 40 refineries, many are outdated or operating far below capacity. Nigeria, the largest crude producer, has a nominal refining capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day, boosted by the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery but still imports over half its fuel.
In Congo, crude output is set to double to 500,000 bpd, yet the Pointe Noire refinery can process only 24,000 bpd, rising to 40,000 bpd after upgrades far short of demand.
With Africa’s population expected to hit 2.5 billion by 2050, fuel demand is set to double in the coming decades, widening the supply gap unless urgent investments are made.
ARDA’s ‘Africa First’ Plan for Energy Security
ARDA’s five-pillar plan calls for: modernising and expanding refining capacity, harmonising fuel standards to boost intra-African trade, attracting private and public investment by improving transparency and reducing risk, developing pipelines, storage terminals, LPG facilities, and logistics networks and building skills in regulation, engineering, finance, and operations.
It also urges governments to establish strategic fuel reserves as many African nations currently hold only days’ worth of supply and tap into over $4 trillion in African pension funds, insurance assets, and sovereign wealth funds for energy infrastructure.
Kragha stressed that political will and a unified continental strategy are essential to break the cycle of dependency.
“This is about more than infrastructure,” he said. “It’s about Africa’s ability to stand on its own feet in the face of global shocks.”
