A jump in global fuel, fertilizer and food costs has reversed some of the progress made against inflation.
After two years of falling price pressures, shoppers in many African countries are feeling the pinch again. The conflict in the Middle East pushed up global prices for fuel, fertilizer and food, and in more than half the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, it has shown up in the cost of living. The typical, or median, inflation rate is expected to rise from 3.7 percent last year to 5.5 percent this year.
Countries that import most of their fuel and food, and whose currencies cannot easily adjust, have been hit hardest. Governments have been careful about how they respond. With little spare money and high debt, many have avoided costly subsidies and instead used temporary, targeted help, leaning more on interest rates and administrative measures.
Central banks in several countries, including South Africa and Rwanda, have raised rates, while others, such as Kenya and Ghana, have paused their easing.
“Inflation in Sub-Saharan African countries is expected to ease over the medium term as global commodity prices stabilize,” the World Bank stated in its Africa Economic Update, October 2026 report.
The World Bank expects the median inflation rate to drift down to about 4 percent by 2028, but only if Middle East tensions ease and supply chains continue to normalize. Bad weather, shipping disruptions, or a slower fall in global interest rates could keep prices elevated for longer.
Families may face a temporary but painful energy shock, with countries carrying weaker currencies and thinner reserves likely to feel the effects for longer.
