Africa’s aviation industry could more than double passenger traffic and significantly expand its aircraft fleet by 2040 if governments implement reforms that remove regulatory barriers, liberalise air transport markets and improve cross-border connectivity, Acting Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Kenya Airways, Capt. George Kamal, has said.
Speaking at the Kenya Airways 2026 Aviation Media Lab Workshop in Mombasa, Capt. Kamal argued that Africa’s aviation challenges stem less from lack of demand and more from fragmented policies, restrictive air service agreements and uneven regulatory frameworks that continue to hinder the growth of a unified continental aviation market.
According to him, the continent’s economic integration ambitions under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will remain constrained unless African countries make it easier for people, goods and services to move across borders.
“Africa’s passenger traffic is expected to double by 2040 if the right policy environment is created.
Initiatives such as the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) and AfCFTA are critical because Africa cannot develop if Africans cannot efficiently connect with each other,” he said.
Capt. Kamal projected that the number of aircraft operating across the continent could rise to approximately 1,700 by 2040, but stressed that this growth would depend on governments embracing aviation liberalisation and harmonising regulations.
He described the current aviation landscape as fragmented, with many African countries maintaining restrictive bilateral air service agreements and partially closed airspaces that increase costs and reduce operational efficiency.
“We need to work together. One single airline cannot make it alone. One single airport cannot make it alone. One single regulator cannot make it alone,” he said.
The Kenya Airways CEO also questioned regulatory obstacles facing aviation professionals seeking to work across African markets, arguing that certification and licensing requirements often limit labour mobility and knowledge transfer within the industry.
He said engineers and other aviation professionals frequently face additional examinations and certification processes when relocating to another African country, unlike in Europe where qualifications are more widely recognised across jurisdictions.
The lack of seamless connectivity continues to affect trade, tourism and business travel across the continent, despite growing efforts to deepen regional integration under AfCFTA.
Industry figures cited during the workshop indicate that African airlines account for only 36.3 percent of intercontinental seat capacity serving the continent, while non-African carriers control the remaining 63.7 percent.
Capt. Kamal warned that without a more liberalised aviation environment, African carriers would struggle to compete effectively and capture a larger share of the continent’s growing travel market.
He cited visa liberalisation as one example of how policy reforms can stimulate aviation growth, noting that Kenya Airways increased its flight frequencies after South Africa eased visa requirements for Kenyan travellers.
“When South Africa opened visas for Kenya, Kenya Airways started with four to five flights a day,” he said.
Beyond regulatory challenges, Capt. Kamal identified high taxes and escalating operating costs as major threats to airline profitability and passenger growth.
He said aviation taxes imposed in some African countries have made regional travel more expensive than certain long-haul international routes, discouraging demand and weakening the competitiveness of African airlines.
Fuel, he noted, accounts for approximately 40 percent of airline operating expenses and can rise to between 50 and 60 percent when taxation and regulatory costs are added.
He therefore called on governments to accelerate implementation of SAATM, harmonise aviation regulations and create an enabling environment for airlines to expand across borders.
According to him, continued protectionist policies could undermine Africa’s aviation growth prospects and weaken the continent’s position in global aviation negotiations.
Supporting the call, Kenya Airways Board Chairman, Kiprono Kittony, said aviation should be viewed as a strategic enabler of economic integration rather than merely a commercial transport service.
He argued that stronger collaboration among African governments would improve connectivity, facilitate trade under AfCFTA and boost the continent’s global competitiveness.
Representing the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority, Salim A. Bakari described aviation as a key driver of investment, tourism, trade and cultural exchange.
He said the sector’s contribution extends beyond aircraft operations and airports, serving as an important catalyst for economic development and regional integration.
Meanwhile, Kenya Airways Head of Corporate Communications, Media and Public Relations, Henry Okatch, urged journalists to prioritise accuracy and context when reporting on aviation issues.
He noted that aviation remains a highly technical and cost-sensitive industry where inaccurate reporting can affect consumer confidence, investment decisions and airline operations.
“We are not trying to convince you to be positive about aviation, but really to build a narrative that is based on context,” he said.
Mr. Okatch added that the Aviation Media Lab forms part of Kenya Airways’ efforts to strengthen aviation journalism across Africa and improve public understanding of the industry’s opportunities and challenges.
