Africa is entering a new phase in its energy sector, with plans to add 1.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity by 2030, according to the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook. This expansion is being driven by large-scale projects in Nigeria, Angola and Uganda, alongside modular refineries springing up in countries like Ghana, Guinea-Conakry and the Republic of Congo.
At the center of this transformation is Nigeria’s 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, which started operations in 2024 and is already shifting regional fuel trade flows. Angola is advancing new refineries in Lobito and Soyo, while Uganda is building a 60,000-bpd plant in Hoima. In Ghana, modular refinery projects are opening doors for investors and entrepreneurs, despite infrastructure and financing hurdles.
OPEC estimates Africa will need more than $40 billion in refining investments by 2030 and at least $60 billion beyond that for construction, upgrades and processing capacity. This creates a $100 billion investment window for project developers, institutional investors, and sovereign funds.
For businesses across the continent, the opportunity is clear. Africa’s rising fuel demand — expected to more than double from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050 — means more local refining capacity, reduced import dependence and greater prospects for value addition.
The shift is more than an oil story. Local manufacturers, logistics companies, construction firms, service providers and even SMEs stand to benefit from expanded downstream activities. From supplying equipment to providing skilled labor and auxiliary services, Africa’s refining expansion will ripple across multiple sectors of the economy.
Industry stakeholders are expected to align on these opportunities during the 2025 African Energy Week in Cape Town, where governments, investors and operators will shape the next wave of projects and partnerships.
For Africa, the refining push represents more than fuel production. It is a structural pivot from being a raw crude exporter to building integrated energy value chains that support jobs, industrialization and sustainable growth. The question for local businesses now is how quickly they can position themselves to tap into the $100 billion downstream opportunity.
