African governments face more than $90 billion in external debt repayments in 2026, intensifying pressure on countries already grappling with high borrowing costs, currency volatility and limited fiscal space, according to Afreximbank Research.
Egypt accounts for about one-third of the repayments, or approximately $27 billion, followed by Angola, South Africa and Nigeria, the bank said in its August Monthly Developments in the African Macroeconomic Environment report. The total is more than three times the level recorded in 2012.
The repayment burden remains Africa’s principal macro-financial vulnerability despite improving access to international capital markets and a stronger cycle of sovereign credit-rating upgrades, Afreximbank said.
“African external debt repayments are projected to exceed US$90 billion in 2026,” the report said, warning that high debt-to-GDP ratios, refinancing requirements, currency pressures and potentially higher global funding costs could trigger wider sovereign stress.
The pressure is particularly acute for heavily indebted economies. Senegal’s public debt is projected at 132.3% of gross domestic product in 2026, while Mozambique’s is forecast at 106.1%, the highest among the selected countries in the report.
African countries have nevertheless returned to international debt markets. The Democratic Republic of Congo raised $1.25 billion through its debut Eurobond in April, with the issuance more than four times oversubscribed, illustrating renewed investor appetite for African sovereign debt. But Afreximbank cautioned that market access should not be interpreted as evidence that credit risks have disappeared.
The report noted that sovereign borrowing costs remain sharply differentiated across countries, reflecting varying levels of debt sustainability and investor confidence. Gabon’s $920 million Eurobond issuance in July carried a 9.375% rate, underscoring the high cost some governments face when returning to global markets.
The risks are compounded by the prospect of prolonged high global interest rates. Afreximbank said the international rate environment is shifting from active monetary tightening to a prolonged holding phase, with a “higher-for-longer” scenario remaining the base case. That could keep financing costs elevated for African governments seeking to refinance maturing debt.
The Middle East conflict has added another layer of uncertainty by raising energy prices, shipping costs and global risk premiums. Countries dependent on imported fuel and facing significant external financing needs are particularly exposed because higher import bills can weaken currencies and increase demand for foreign exchange, the report said.
The warning comes even as Africa’s broader economic outlook remains relatively resilient. The continent is projected to grow 4.2% in both 2026 and 2027, outpacing expected global growth of 3% and 3.4%, respectively.
Still, Afreximbank said renewed market access does not eliminate the underlying risks.“Market access and credit quality are not synonymous,” the report said, noting the need for governments to maintain fiscal consolidation and strengthen debt sustainability as repayment obligations rise.
The $90 billion repayment burden was also highlighted earlier this year by S&P Global Ratings, which said Africa’s hard-currency debt repayments had become more than three times larger than in 2012, increasing rollover and external financing risks.
