The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) flagged widening economic pressures across its member states even as some countries post sector-specific gains, underscoring the uneven recovery facing the continent.
In Ghana, more than 300,000 cocoa farmers are protesting what they describe as inadequate support from the government after authorities announced only a 4% increase in producer prices. The rate lags behind regional benchmarks, prompting threats to obstruct regulators and warnings that beans could be smuggled into neighboring markets offering higher returns. Afreximbank noted that Ghana already lost about 160,000 tonnes of cocoa last season due to pricing pressures, further straining export revenues. In August of 2025 Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) set the producer price at GH¢51,660 ($4,783) per tonne, or GH¢3,228 per 64kg bag, reflecting a 4% increase from last year. But farmers argue the increment is negligible compared to both production costs and regional market dynamics.
Nigeria’s outlook is more upbeat, with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) reporting that pipeline theft has been nearly eliminated, allowing almost all oil to reach export terminals. Afreximbank said coordinated security operations have lifted confidence that production could approach 2.5 million barrels per day, a level last seen in 2005. At the same time, Nigeria has banned raw shea nut exports for six months, part of a push to expand domestic processing. Analysts cited by the bank estimate potential gains of $300 million in the short term and up to $3 billion by 2027 if investment in local capacity materializes.
Nigeria, the world’s largest producer of shea nuts, halted exports for six months to push local processing, but the move backfired as prices crashed from ₦1.2 million (GH¢9,187.20) to ₦800,000 (GH¢6,124.80) per ton in days. Farmers, traders, and exporters now face losses and contract defaults. Ghana however through the Tree Crops Development Authority (TCDA), enforces a minimum farm gate price of GH¢9.01 per kilogram, (approximately GH¢9,010 per ton) tied to quality standards. This has ensured stability for farmers compared with the roughly GH¢6 per kilogram earned in neighbouring markets with bans.
Senegal faces a more precarious outlook. The International Monetary Fund has delayed a decision on the country’s debt program following the disclosure of over $11 billion in previously unreported liabilities. The case will require IMF Board approval and a waiver before new lending can resume. In response, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko unveiled a recovery plan that would draw 90% of its funding from domestic resources, relying on external partners mainly through asset recycling.
These contrasting developments highlight the region’s exposure to both opportunity and risk, with commodity-linked gains offset by fiscal instability, weak agricultural earnings, and governance concerns. The report should urge governments to accelerate reforms and strengthen resilience through trade diversification and investment in value-added industries.
