Ghana’s 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy affirms the government’s commitment to consolidate gains made so far, but experts warn that it must be cautious with its capital expenditure; this is the verdict of economist and political risk analyst, Dr. Theo Acheampong.
Dr. Theo Acheampong believes the document marks one of the strongest signs that the economy is genuinely finding its feet after years of turbulence. However, he is pointing out that the country cannot afford to relax its grip on spending, especially on capital projects.
In his reaction to the budget, the economist described the budget as credible and stabilising, noting that it builds on the progress made over the past two years. He affirms that the economy is currently experiencing falling inflation, a more manageable debt profile, improved revenue collection, and a return to some confidence in the markets.
According to him, Ghana’s economic reset has been “better than what many expected,” especially given where the country stood in 2022.
Yet beneath the encouraging outlook are threats that must be managed meticulously. The road ahead, he cautions, will demand tight fiscal discipline and a firm hand on capital expenditure.
To put it bluntly, he says the government must avoid spending on projects it cannot fully fund or sustain.
“What this means is that the government has to be (and is being) razor sharp on capital budget execution and recurrent expenditure controls to contain spending in 2026,” he cautioned.
Dr. Acheampong further pointed out that while the numbers are improving, the economy remains exposed to other risks such as unstable commodity prices, financial pressures in state-owned enterprises, and the ongoing need to reform the energy sector.
Capital projects, often roads, infrastructure, and major government investments, are usually among the first areas where overspending can quietly creep in. If that happens, Ghana could easily find itself slipping backward.
“Key vulnerabilities and concerns remain: 1. leaning on expenditure restraint, especially CAPEX; 2. revenue improvement continues (buoyant revenue and higher tax effort), and 3. SOE exposures (underlying structural problems, including tariff under-recovery, governance, legacy arrears, etc.). Other external pressures are vulnerability to external financing and commodity shocks,” he enumerated.
He also noted that Ghana’s targets for next year are closely tied to the IMF programme, which ends in May 2026. Any missteps in spending could threaten the credibility the country has just begun to rebuild.
With ratings agencies such as S&P recently upgrading Ghana’s credit score, confidence is slowly returning. However, he cited S&P’s caution that Ghana’s progress must be tested “through the economic cycle and especially the electoral cycle.” This means that election years are historically risky for budgets, and investors will be watching how strictly the government controls its spending.
Amid the recovery and threats, Dr. Theo Acheampong maintains that Ghana is finally on firmer ground, but staying on that path depends on keeping capital expenditure lean, targeted, and tightly monitored.
