Ghana’s external sector wrapped up 2025 looking solid. Exports were up, the trade surplus was widening, and on the surface, everything seemed steady. But the first months of 2026 are telling a slightly different story. The numbers are still good, but what’s driving them is quietly shifting.
By February 2026, Ghana’s exports hit $6.2 billion, just a bit below the $7.0 billion recorded around March 2025. That doesn’t sound too bad, but when we look at the early months specifically, a more nuanced picture emerges. Comparing early 2025 with the start of 2026 shows how the dynamics behind the numbers are evolving, rather than just the raw totals.
The bright spot is that, gold is shining. Its export earnings keep climbing, cementing its role as the backbone of Ghana’s external sector. In early 2025, gold made up just over half of total exports; by early 2026, it accounts for nearly 70 percent, with exports reaching $4.26 billion.
But beyond gold, Cocoa exports have taken a hit, dropping from $1.60 billion in March 2025 to $0.96 billion in February 2026. Oil revenues have slipped, from $0.78 billion to $0.45 billion, and other exports fell from $0.92 billion to $0.54 billion. What once looked like a balanced mix of exports is now tipping heavily toward gold.
Notwithstanding, the trade surplus actually grew, from $3.3 billion to $3.7 billion. But the twist is that, it’s not because exports are booming. Imports fell sharply, by more than 30 percent.
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The drop in imports could mean Ghanaians are buying less from abroad, or that the cedi is strong enough to keep import costs down. Either way, this import compression supports the trade balance in the short term, but it also raises the question: is this really lower demand, or just the effect of the currency?
Meanwhile, gold’s dominance is becoming even more noticeable. While it’s doing well, cocoa, oil, and other exports are losing ground. That growing concentration makes Ghana’s external position more exposed. A dip in global gold prices or a production hiccup could shrink export earnings fast and quickly narrow the trade surplus.
So, the current strength of the trade balance is a bit of a double-edged sword. It’s supported by two main factors: a dominant gold sector and subdued imports. Both are holding things up for now, but neither guarantees long-term stability on its own.
Ghana’s external sector story is shifting. 2025’s gains haven’t disappeared, but the foundation is evolving. The real question for 2026 is; would exports spread out beyond gold?
