Global soybean markets are tilting toward oversupply after record harvests in South America replenished inventories, pushing prices into a prolonged downturn even as demand from Africa’s fast-growing livestock sector continues to climb.
Soybean futures began March trading near 1,150 U.S. cents per bushel, up about 20% from August 2025 but still roughly 25% below June 2023 levels, according to research by African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). Prices have remained volatile since mid-2023, though underlying fundamentals point to a broadly bearish market.
The shift reflects a sharp reversal from the supply shocks that drove a rally in 2023. Extreme weather in Argentina cut output by more than half to about 21 million tonnes, the lowest in 24 years, while smaller declines in U.S. production tightened global supply. Buyers turned to Brazil, where logistical disruptions and regional drought compounded price pressures. That dynamic has since flipped.
Record production in Brazil, including a bumper crop exceeding 150 million tonnes and projections of up to 180 million tonnes, alongside a recovery in Argentina, has rebuilt global stockpiles. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts global soybean stocks will reach a record 125.5 million tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year, reinforcing expectations of sustained downward pressure on prices.
Demand growth has also softened. China, which accounts for roughly 60% to 65% of global imports, is expected to hold purchases steady at about 112 million tonnes, limiting upside for exporters. Despite the global glut, Africa remains structurally dependent on imports.
The continent produces about 6.5 million tonnes of soybeans annually, or roughly 1.5% of global output, even after a decade of expansion at an average growth rate of around 11% per year. Consumption continues to outpace supply, driven by rapid growth in poultry and livestock industries that rely heavily on soybean meal for feed.
South Africa leads regional production with about 2.8 million tonnes, followed by Nigeria and Zambia. Yet major economies including Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia remain significant importers, underscoring the continent’s reliance on external suppliers such as Brazil, Argentina and the U.S.
Africa is projected to remain less than 40% self-sufficient in soybeans by 2050, reflecting persistent constraints including low yields, limited fertilizer use and weak infrastructure.
The demand outlook remains firm. Soybeans are central to feed production, with about 37% of global supply used for poultry and 20% for pigs. Rising incomes and urbanization across Africa are increasing consumption of animal protein, further boosting import needs. Even so, soybean oil holds a relatively small share of Africa’s edible oil market at under 20%, trailing palm oil and other alternatives such as sunflower and groundnut oil.
Analysts say investment in processing capacity and regional trade infrastructure will be key to narrowing the supply gap. Initiatives backed by Afreximbank aim to link surplus-producing countries with feed-deficit markets and expand local crushing and milling capacity. For now, the global market remains caught between ample supply and uneven demand.
Short-term support for prices could come from weather risks in the U.S. and logistical constraints in South America, as well as rising demand from biofuels. But with inventories at record highs, the broader trajectory points to continued pressure on prices even as Africa’s appetite for soybeans keeps growing.
