The International Monetary Fund’s projection of slower global trade growth raises the stakes for Ghana’s efforts to diversify export earnings, expand local manufacturing and reduce dependence on gold and other primary commodities for foreign exchange.
World trade volume growth is projected to ease from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 before stabilising at 4.7% in 2027, as tariffs, shifting supply chains and changes in global production weigh on trade expansion, according to the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook.
For Ghana, where export earnings remain heavily concentrated in gold, the outlook highlights the importance of building a broader export base capable of generating foreign exchange, supporting industrial growth and creating jobs beyond commodity production.
Data from the Bank of Ghana show that the country recorded a trade surplus of US$13.66 billion in 2025, driven largely by strong gold and cocoa receipts. Gold exports alone generated about US$20.98 billion, while cocoa exports, including beans and processed products, earned US$3.86 billion.
However, the strength of these earnings also exposes the economy to international price movements and shifts in demand for its key exports.
The Ghana Statistical Service reported that gold accounted for 63.1% of the country’s total exports in 2025, up from 38.5% in 2004, underscoring the growing concentration of export revenues in a single commodity.
The IMF’s projections do not necessarily mean Ghana’s exports will decline. Rather, slower global trade growth could intensify competition for markets and make it more important for exporters to improve productivity, pricing and product quality.
For local manufacturers, agricultural processors and small businesses seeking to enter international markets, access to competitive financing, reliable electricity, efficient transport and lower production costs will be critical to expanding export capacity.
Ghana’s ability to process more of its gold, cocoa, agricultural produce and other raw materials locally could also help retain more value within the economy, although success would depend on the cost of production, investment and access to reliable overseas buyers.
The changing structure of global trade presents both risks and opportunities. The IMF says tariffs and the reconfiguration of supply chains are reshaping trade relationships, creating scope for alternative suppliers as businesses adjust their sourcing and production networks.
Ghana and other African economies could benefit from these shifts if they can offer competitive products, improve trade logistics and use regional markets as a platform for scaling production.
The African Continental Free Trade Area, headquartered in Accra, provides a framework for expanding intra-African commerce and building regional value chains. However, translating that opportunity into higher export earnings will require businesses to overcome practical barriers, including transport costs, border delays, financing constraints and differences in trade regulations.
The stakes extend beyond exporters. Foreign exchange generated from trade helps support a country’s external position, while export-sector investment can stimulate employment, supplier networks and demand for local services.
A broader and more competitive export base could therefore help Ghana reduce its exposure to individual commodity markets and strengthen the contribution of manufacturing and agro-processing to economic growth.
The IMF also projects that global economic imbalances will narrow only modestly over the medium term. Current account balances widened to about 3.8% of global gross domestic product in 2025, driven largely by China’s expanding surplus and larger surpluses in several Asian economies.
These developments reflect an uneven distribution of production, consumption and investment across major economies, with implications for competition, trade flows and access to international markets.
For Ghana, the central economic challenge is to convert its existing export earnings into productive investment that expands the range of goods and services it can sell abroad.
As global trade growth moderates, the country’s long-term resilience will depend not only on how much gold, cocoa and oil it exports, but also on whether more Ghanaian businesses can manufacture, process and compete in regional and international markets.
