The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing major disruptions to global transport networks, threatening international trade, economic growth, and the livelihoods of millions of people worldwide.
According to the Fund, the conflict has severely affected maritime and air traffic across the region, damaged critical infrastructure, and interrupted key transport corridors that facilitate the movement of energy supplies and goods around the world.
The IMF cautioned that even under the most optimistic scenario, a return to pre-conflict conditions is unlikely to be swift or seamless.
In a recent chart analysis, the Fund highlighted the continuing impact of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, where attacks on commercial vessels that began in 2023 forced many shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal and reroute around Africa instead.
More than two years after the attacks started, vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime passage between Yemen and Djibouti, remains at roughly half of its pre-crisis level.
The IMF said uncertainty also surrounds future traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and regional air routes, both of which play a critical role in global trade and energy transportation.
“The future of Strait of Hormuz transits and regional air traffic remains unknown. However, it is already clear that growth will be slower, even if an enduring peace is reached,” the Fund noted.
According to the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, disruptions to shipping and aviation networks increase transportation costs, slow the movement of goods, and place additional pressure on global supply chains.
The consequences are particularly severe for economies that depend heavily on tourism and imported goods.
The Fund explained that consumers ultimately bear the burden through higher prices for food, fuel, and other essential commodities.
Lower-income households are especially vulnerable, as they spend a larger share of their incomes on basic necessities.
The IMF further warned that if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and regional air routes recovers at the same pace as the Bab el-Mandeb corridor, the negative impact on economic growth could continue for years after hostilities end.
As a result, the Fund urged governments and policymakers to prioritize measures that strengthen the resilience of transport networks and supply chains.
“Policies that strengthen the resilience of transport networks are now central to sustaining growth and protecting livelihoods,” the IMF said.
The warning comes amid growing concerns among economists and policymakers that prolonged disruptions in some of the world’s most strategic transport routes could undermine global trade recovery efforts and add fresh inflationary pressures to economies already grappling with high living costs.
