‘Revised 2025 Lithium Lease Weakens Ghana’s Sovereignty’: 5 Takeaways from IMANI Africa

Policy think tank IMANI Africa is urging Parliament to withhold ratification of the revised Ewoyaa lithium mining lease, arguing that the new agreement with Barari DV Ghana Ltd, a subsidiary of Atlantic Lithium, significantly weakens Ghana’s bargaining position and surrenders critical national value.

In a detailed public statement, IMANI says its review of the 2023 and 2025 leases, fiscal modelling by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), and international benchmarks show the new terms are “a large giveaway at the expense of citizens” and should not be allowed to stand.

The think tank dismisses government claims that lithium royalties are legally capped at 5%, calling the argument “misleading” and incompatible with both the Constitution and past practice. It also warns that the revised agreement strips out hard-won protections, including the original 10% royalty secured in 2023, while offering no meaningful guarantees for value addition or long-term national benefit.

Five Major Takeaways from IMANI’s Statement

1. The 5% royalty “legal cap” is false

IMANI argues decisively that nothing in Ghana’s mining law prevents the country from charging a higher royalty rate. Parliament has constitutional authority under Article 268 to ratify mineral agreements that set unique fiscal terms, including higher royalties for strategic minerals like lithium. Past regulations have seen royalties rise above 10%, proving the ceiling is a political choice, not a legal constraint.

“The Government’s suggestion that anything above 5% is unheard of in Ghana’s law ignores its own history. Under the Minerals (Royalties) Regulations, 1987 (LI 1349), Ghana operated a variable, price-linked royalty with effective rates that could exceed 10% and reach 12% in windfall conditions. As others have pointed out, using these very regulations, that Ghana has precedent for higher-than-10%, effective burdens, directly contradicting the “we are constrained at 5%” story,” the think tank said.

“Reducing the royalty to 5% at current prices transfers $50 per tonne directly from the Ghanaian people to the company. Over a planned production of ~350,000 tonnes per annum, this represents an annual loss of $17.5 million to the state.”

2. Ghana is giving up millions annually through royalty cuts

Independent modelling referenced by IMANI shows the Ewoyaa project remains highly profitable even at current lithium prices. With production costs around $610 per tonne and prices above $1,000, a 10% royalty is fully sustainable. Dropping it to 5% transfers roughly $17.5 million each year from Ghana to the company.

“Contrary to the Ministry’s pessimistic figures, the lithium market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery. Spot Prices as of November 2025, the price for spodumene concentrate (6% Li2O) is tracking between $1,000 and $1,195 per tonne, significantly higher than the $630 figure cited to justify the royalty cut.

“Leading market analysts, including Goldman Sachs and Fastmarkets, forecast a market tightening in 2025 and 2026 driven by the explosive growth of Energy Storage Systems (ESS). Projections suggest prices will rebound and stabilize well above the $1,000 threshold. In short, not only is the project profitable at the 10% royalty mark in the context of current prices, but the outlook also suggests rising profitability over the short to medium term,” the think tank explained.

3. The new agreement weakens state control and reduces obligations

The revised lease removes the explicit 10% royalty and replaces it with vague language that defaults to the lower statutory rate. IMANI also flags “soft” obligations on refining, noting the company is only required to conduct scoping studies, not to build a refinery or add value in Ghana.

Downstream commitments are described as “pathetically weak,” increasing the risk that Ghana remains only a raw-ore supplier. “The shift in language regarding the establishment of a refinery indicates a retreat from a hard mandate to a ‘best efforts’ endeavour,” the think tank emphasized.

IMANI further argues that Ghana is moving in the opposite direction when it comes to volatile critical minerals, as locking in a flat 5% royalty delivers very little extra to the public purse when prices recover.

“It is also a matter of record that since Atlantic (Barari) first pushed for the “old” agreement’s approval in late 2024, spot spodumene prices have actually risen by more than 25%, invalidating the narrative that Ghana had “no choice” because of collapsing prices. In short, Ghana is legislating for the bottom of the cycle and leaving the top of the cycle to the company,” it added.

4. Ghana’s equity stake is not the compensation government claims

IMANI argues that minority equity, especially through MIIF, does not guarantee stable returns and is easily eroded by cost allocations, debt servicing, and transfer-pricing practices common in mining. Dividends, unlike royalties, are uncertain and often appear years after production begins. Equity cannot replace robust, guaranteed fiscal instruments.

“The Government frequently points to Ghana’s 19% equity stake (13% free carried interest plus 6% held via MIIF) and a planned GSE listing as evidence that the state is “sharing in the upside” even with lower royalties. This position is problematic on multiple fronts.

“The attempt to portray a reduction from 10% to 5% royalty as “offset” by equity is not grounded in fiscal reality. It is precisely why most best-practice regimes combine reasonable royalties with carefully structured equity and profit-based taxes rather than trading one off against the other.”

5. Ghana lags behind international best practice on critical minerals

Countries like Chile, Zimbabwe, and Namibia have strengthened fiscal regimes, mandated value addition or imposed export restrictions to protect national interests. Ghana, IMANI warns, is moving in the opposite direction, weakening its only strong revenue instrument and allowing opaque off-take arrangements that undermine midstream value capture.

IMANI Calls for a Complete Renegotiation

The think tank recommends Parliament insist on reinstating a higher royalty or a transparent sliding scale above 10%, enforceable value-addition commitments, tighter rules on off-take pricing, and full transparency of associated agreements before considering ratification.

“Lithium is a strategic mineral of the energy-transition era,” IMANI concludes. “Decisions taken today will shape Ghana’s development for generations. Parliament must insist on better, not out of hostility to investors, but out of fidelity to the Constitution and the national interest.”