Ghana’s revenue collection came in fractionally below the government’s own half-year targets for 2026, even as sharply lower expenditure allowed the country to post a primary surplus ahead of expectations, according to figures presented in the Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson.
Non-oil tax revenue reached 6.4 percent of GDP by June 2026, against a target of 6.5 percent. Domestic revenue stood at 7.7 percent of GDP, compared with a targeted 7.8 percent, while total revenue and grants reached 7.8 percent of GDP against a 7.9 percent target.
In each case, the shortfall against target was narrow, roughly one-tenth of a percentage point of GDP, but the pattern was consistent across all three revenue lines, suggesting collection tracked marginally behind the government’s own projections through the first half of the year.
Expenditure, however, fell short of its half-year target by a considerably wider margin. Total expenditure on a commitment basis stood at 8.0 percent of GDP by June, compared to a half-year target of 9.9 percent.
Primary expenditure, which excludes interest payments, came in at 6.6 percent of GDP against a targeted 8.1 percent, while interest costs stood at 1.3 percent of GDP against a projected 1.8 percent, a gap Ato Forson attributed to lower interest rates and improved debt management.The minister described the overall outturn as “stronger than anticipated,” attributing the result to continued fiscal prudence.
The net effect of these two trends, a modest revenue miss alongside a substantially larger expenditure underrun, is what allowed the Government to record a primary surplus of 0.9 percent of GDP on a commitment basis by the end of June, keeping the country on track for its full-year target of 1.5 percent. In effect, spending restraint rather than revenue overperformance appears to have carried the fiscal position through the first half of the year.
Notably, the minister opened the Review by stating that the Government was “not” seeking a supplementary estimate, and that the 2026 appropriations “remain unchanged.”
Rather than raising tax rates, the administration has directed its revenue strategy toward closing collection loopholes, citing an estimated 60 percent of potential VAT revenue lost annually to non-compliance. Additionally, customs suspense regimes have been identified as a source of revenue loss, with a reported 37 percent of taxable imports passing without attracting duty between 2020 and 2025.
Reforms now before Parliament, including statutory warehousing limits, mandatory electronic inventory systems for bonded warehouses, and the AI-driven Publican trade solution already credited with lifting assessed customs collections by more than US$300 million, point to a revenue strategy built on tightening enforcement and administration rather than expanding the tax base.
The first-half fiscal results suggest that Ghana’s stronger-than-expected fiscal position has been driven primarily by expenditure discipline rather than revenue outperformance.
With appropriations unchanged and no supplementary budget sought, the second half of the year will test whether ongoing compliance and tax administration reforms can translate into stronger revenue mobilisation, allowing the Government to sustain its fiscal consolidation while meeting its full-year revenue targets.
