Ghana’s 4.4% economic growth projection for 2025 is realistic but hinges on strict fiscal discipline to ensure credibility, warns Professor John Gatsi, Dean of the University of Cape Coast Business School. While the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts are commendable, macroeconomic stability remains fragile amid global uncertainties and domestic structural weaknesses.
Speaking at a parliamentary workshop on the 2025 budget, Prof. Gatsi acknowledged Ghana’s progress in narrowing the fiscal deficit from 7.9% to 3.1% and shifting the primary balance from a 3.9% deficit to a projected 1.5% surplus. However, he stressed that these targets must be grounded in pragmatic execution rather than optimistic forecasting.
“The credibility of macroeconomic programs is crucial for investor confidence and long-term growth. While Ghana’s economic performance has outpaced regional peers, structural inefficiencies and fiscal imbalances pose significant risks,” he stated.
Ghana’s 2024 GDP growth of 5.7% outperformed ECOWAS, Sub-Saharan Africa, and emerging market averages, but Prof. Gatsi cautioned against setting overly ambitious targets that could strain fiscal planning. While improving, Ghana still falls short of ECOWAS fiscal benchmarks, persistent inflation and deficit challenges require tighter policy controls and the economy’s ability to sustain growth depends on deep structural adjustments beyond fiscal consolidation.
The government’s goal of achieving an 11.9% primary balance surplus will demand rigorous fiscal policies, spending discipline, and revenue mobilization strategies.
Despite these risks, Prof. Gatsi believes Ghana’s policy framework is sound, provided there is absolute commitment to execution. He stressed the importance of balancing fiscal discipline with strategic investments in social infrastructure, innovation, and private sector growth.
