Oil prices rose sharply in March, climbing above $100 a barrel as supply disruptions and tensions in the Middle East tightened the global market, according to a report from OPEC.
OPEC said its reference basket increased by $48.46 from the previous month to average $116.36 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $99.60, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate reached $91. The rise was driven by reduced supply, shipping delays and stronger investor interest in oil markets.
Traders expect supplies to remain tight in the near term, as risks linked to the Middle East continue. Investment funds also increased their bets on rising prices, pushing positions to their highest levels in years.
Despite higher prices, OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.4 million barrels a day in 2026. Most of the increase is expected to come from countries outside developed economies, especially in Asia. Demand is also seen rising by 1.3 million barrels a day in 2027. China and India are expected to lead demand growth, supported by travel and industrial activity. Demand is likely to pick up further later in the year, as fuel use increases during the summer travel season.
On the supply side, production from countries outside the OPEC+ group is expected to rise slightly by about 600,000 barrels a day in 2026, led by the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Argentina. At the same time, output from OPEC+ producers fell in March, adding to supply pressure.
Refineries are also facing constraints. Global processing levels dropped by 5 million barrels a day in March, the largest fall since 2020, due to maintenance and supply issues. This led to lower fuel output and higher refining profits, especially for diesel and jet fuel.
Shipping costs have added to the pressure. Tanker rates increased sharply on major routes as buyers looked for alternative supplies. OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3.1% for 2026, supported by steady growth in the U.S., China and India, but warned that ongoing tensions could still affect the market.
The group said limited supply, stronger seasonal demand and tight refining capacity could keep oil prices elevated in the coming months.
