Oil markets jolted back to life on Thursday, with prices surging more than 6% as fresh uncertainty around the Middle East conflict reignited fears over global supply.
Brent crude climbed above the psychologically important $100 mark, reaching about $107.64 per barrel, as traders reacted to signs that a quick resolution to the Iran conflict is increasingly unlikely.
At the centre of the shift were remarks from Donald Trump, who in a rare prime-time address stopped short of offering any clear timeline for ending the conflict. While he indicated that U.S. strategic objectives in Iran were nearing completion, he also warned that military operations could intensify over the next two to three weeks.
For oil markets, that uncertainty matters. The longer the conflict drags on, the greater the risk of disruption across the Gulf, a region that sits at the heart of global energy supply. Traders quickly priced in the possibility of deeper damage to critical infrastructure, sending prices sharply higher.
Tensions escalated further after Iran rejected claims that it had sought a ceasefire, instead insisting that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed under the control of its IRGC Navy. The narrow waterway is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, and any prolonged disruption there could ripple across global markets.
The latest surge adds to an already strong run. Over the past month, Brent crude has climbed more than 32%, and is now up over 53% compared to a year ago, highlighting how quickly geopolitical risk has reshaped the energy outlook.
Even data that would normally calm markets failed to ease the rally. In the United States, crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million barrels last week, well above expectations, but the build was largely overshadowed by geopolitical concerns.
