Brent crude futures settled around $65.80 per barrel Monday, as traders navigated a mix of geopolitical risks, trade uncertainties, weather-driven demand, and shifting supply dynamics.
All eyes remain on the Middle East, where the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group near Iran has sparked fears of potential disruptions to regional energy flows. Analysts caution that any escalation could tighten supply and push prices higher.
Trade tensions, meanwhile, continue to weigh on the market. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Ottawa finalized a deal with China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney moved to clarify, saying Canada does not intend to pursue such an agreement and that the recent deal only reduces tariffs on select sectors. Markets reacted positively to Carney’s statement, which helped ease some of the pressure from geopolitical concerns.
Weather also played a supporting role. A major winter storm across the United States has driven higher demand for heating fuels, tightening short-term supply and providing an additional boost to crude prices.
Supply developments offered a mixed picture. Kazakhstan’s oil exports are set to return to normal after repairs to an offshore mooring facility. At the same time, talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without a breakthrough, leaving the possibility of further supply disruptions looming.
