The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has launched its inaugural Commodity Bulletin, providing a detailed analysis of global commodity trends and their implications for Africa’s trade, fiscal stability, and industrialisation agenda.
The bulletin, covering oil, natural gas, gold, copper, sugar, and rice, forms part of the Bank’s effort to provide data-driven insights for policymakers and investors as Africa navigates shifting global supply chains, energy transitions, and market volatility.
Afreximbank said the report aligns with its mission to drive structural transformation through industrialisation and export diversification under the African Union’s Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want.
“Commodities should become engines of inclusive growth rather than sources of vulnerability,” the Bank noted, emphasizing the need for value addition and regional integration across Africa’s resource sectors.
Oil and Gas Markets Face Diverging Fortunes
According to the report, global oil demand slowed to below one million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, less than half the 2023 pace, amid weaker economic growth and accelerating energy transition policies. Despite subdued demand, African crude exports, particularly from Nigeria and Algeria, rose to multi-year highs.
However, Afreximbank warned that domestic bottlenecks such as poor refining capacity, aging pipelines, and limited cross-border energy integration continue to constrain Africa’s competitiveness in oil markets.
In contrast, natural gas demand expanded sharply, with global consumption rising by over 100 billion cubic meters in 2024. Africa contributed 8.5% of global LNG supply, led by Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt, even as output fell slightly due to aging fields and project delays. New LNG projects in Mozambique, Senegal, and Mauritania are expected to reinforce the continent’s position as a flexible supplier.
Gold Shines as Safe-Haven Asset
Gold prices surged 25% in 2024 to close at $2,610.85 per ounce, the strongest annual gain in 14 years. The rally was driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. Africa accounted for roughly 30% of global gold output, with Ghana and Mali leading production.
The report highlighted Ghana’s new Royal Ghana Gold Refinery, the country’s first commercial refinery and Africa’s second-largest, as a milestone toward increasing local value addition in the gold industry.
Copper Demand Anchored in Green Transition
Copper markets remained volatile but underpinned by steady demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle manufacturing. While Africa, especially the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, plays a critical role in global supply, the Bank cautioned that chronic power shortages and limited refining infrastructure are preventing full value capture.
Soft Commodities: Sugar and Rice in Transition
Global sugar production rose to 186 million tonnes in 2024, easing prices to three-year lows. African output, steady at about 6% of global production, is expected to expand with capacity increases in Egypt, Kenya, and Morocco.
Meanwhile, global rice production reached a record 533.8 million tonnes (milled basis), with prices falling to their lowest levels in eight years. Africa’s rice market, valued at US$24 billion in 2024, is projected to reach US$29.2 billion by 2030, though the continent still imports about 40% of its consumption.
Driving Value Addition and Trade Integration
Afreximbank reaffirmed its commitment to helping African economies capture greater value from commodities through initiatives like the Africa Commodities Initiative (AFRICOIN) and the African Textile Renaissance Plan. These programs aim to enhance local processing in mining, energy, and agro-industrial sectors while promoting intra-African trade.
“Africa must move beyond its role as a primary exporter to become a globally competitive hub for value-added production and trade,” the report concluded.
