Brent crude traded below $72 per barrel on Monday, extending recent losses as improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and another planned OPEC+ production increase reinforced expectations of a more adequately supplied global oil market.
The international benchmark fell to around $71.7 per barrel, hovering near its lowest level since late February. Brent has declined nearly 24% over the past month, although prices remain slightly above levels recorded a year ago, reflecting the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that drove crude prices sharply higher earlier this year.
Market sentiment was pressured after seven key OPEC+ producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise collective production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August. The increase marks the fifth consecutive monthly production hike as the alliance gradually reverses previous supply cuts and signals growing confidence in market conditions.
Adding to bearish sentiment, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to normalize over the weekend following disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. The recovery in one of the world’s most strategically important oil transit routes has eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions and encouraged expectations of stronger crude exports from Gulf producers.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly increased exports toward pre-conflict levels, while other regional producers are also restoring shipments as logistical conditions improve. The return of these barrels is expected to increase global crude availability over the coming months.
Despite the improved supply outlook, analysts caution that uncertainty remains.
Actual production increases will depend on how quickly exports across the Gulf recover, while demand prospects, particularly from China, continue to influence the market’s direction. Slower-than-expected consumption growth could amplify concerns about an emerging supply surplus.
For now, traders appear focused on the prospect of rising supply rather than geopolitical risk, with Brent remaining under pressure as the market reassesses the global oil balance in the second half of 2026.
