Independent, non-profit organization in the extractive industry, the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has called for rigorous scrutiny of Atlantic Lithium’s push for major fiscal concessions to advance Ghana’s first lithium mine at Ewoyaa.
As Parliament’s ratification of the mining lease remains delayed following a change in government, NRGI warns that Ghana risks undermining its long-term economic interests if it grants permanent tax breaks without full transparency on the company’s revised profitability claims.
Barari DV Ghana Ltd, Atlantic Lithium’s Ghanaian subsidiary is requesting that government halve its royalty rate from 10% to 5% or introduce a sliding-scale royalty tied to lithium prices. The company also wants revisions to corporate income tax terms and the removal of import duties on capital equipment.
Atlantic argues that the Ewoyaa project is no longer viable at current global lithium prices. The company’s 2023 feasibility study had assumed an average price of USD 1,587 per tonne of lithium spodumene concentrate, but prices have since plunged to around USD 785 per tonne. Atlantic claims this has slashed its post-tax internal rate of return (IRR) to 13.6%, down sharply from an earlier estimate of 94% before debt financing.
NRGI Challenges Atlantic’s Position
Denis Gyeyir and Thomas Scurfield, both analysts from the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), point out in a paper that Atlantic Lithium had not disclosed the assumptions behind its revised profitability claims.
NRGI’s own modelling shows that even at USD 785 per tonne, the project could deliver a pre-debt IRR of 25% and a post-debt IRR of 28% , levels close to the 30% the company says it requires for investment.
The NRGI analysis raises concerns that without transparency on Atlantic’s assumptions, such as potential changes in production plans or cost estimates, Parliament and the public will lack the information needed to assess the validity of the company’s request.
Global Price Outlook Remains Positive
Despite current market challenges, NRGI notes that most analysts expect lithium prices to recover. Goldman Sachs projects a rebound to USD 969 per tonne in 2026 and USD 1,264 per tonne by 2028. This outlook underscores the need for caution: permanent fiscal concessions now could mean Ghana forfeits substantial revenue when prices rise.
What Should Ghana Seek in Return?
If government concludes some fiscal support is necessary to get the project off the ground, NRGI urges it to structure concessions carefully. Time-bound or price-linked relief , such as a sliding-scale royalty, would better protect Ghana’s interests than permanent tax breaks. In addition, the government could strengthen the lease terms to reduce tax avoidance risks, ensure fair pricing in off-take agreements, and secure clearer dividend policies.
Refinery Commitments Under Review
The NRGI report also highlights the delay in public disclosure of Atlantic’s scoping study for a lithium refinery, as required in the original lease agreement. NRGI argues that while local refining remains a strategic goal, pursuing it prematurely could cost Ghana up to USD 500 million in lost revenues or require major public subsidies. The institute recommends a cautious “mine-and-monitor” approach while the government builds capacity and studies the evolving global lithium market.
A Critical Moment for Parliament
The NRGI paper emphasizes that the change in administration and the resulting delay in lease ratification give Ghana an opportunity to reassess Atlantic’s demands and ensure any fiscal measures support long-term national interests. The authors warn against rushing a decision with lasting impacts on Ghana’s public finances and development prospects.
“Before agreeing to any fiscal concessions, Ghana must demand full transparency on Atlantic Lithium’s revised assumptions and carefully evaluate the implications under various price scenarios,” the NRGI analysis concludes.
